贝叶斯身世之谜——写在贝叶斯定理发表250周年之际

统计研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 3-9.

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贝叶斯身世之谜——写在贝叶斯定理发表250周年之际

刘乐平等

出版日期:2013-12-15 发布日期:2013-11-28

The Mysteries of Bayes--Celebrating 250 Years of Bayes’s Theorem

Leping Liu et al.

Online:2013-12-15 Published:2013-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2013年12月23日，是理查德?普莱斯(Richard Price)在伦敦皇家学会会议上宣读托马斯?贝叶斯(Thomas Bayes)著名论文的250周年纪念日。世界各地举行多种活动纪念这个对统计学具有重要意义的日子。本文针对贝叶斯的诞辰日问题，基于网络资料的先验信息，结合贝叶斯历史研究学术文献中的证据，对贝叶斯的出生日进行贝叶斯统计推断，然后对如今广为流传的贝叶斯画像进行讨论。以此纪念贝叶斯定理发现250周年。

关键词: 贝叶斯定理, 贝叶斯推断, 贝叶斯诞辰日

Abstract: December 23, 2013 is the 250th anniversary of the date that Richard Price presented Thomas Bayes’s famous paper at the conference of the Royal Society of London. A variety of activities will be held around the world to commemorate this important day for statistics. This article focused on the problem of Bayes's birthday, based on prior information on the network, combined with literature of historical research about Bayesian evidence, this article inference Bayes’s birthday using Bayesian analysis, and then discusses the well-known Bayes’s portrait. This paper is to celebrate 250 years of Bayes’s theorem.

Key words: Key words: Bayes’s Theorem, Bayesian Inference, Bayes’s Birthday

刘乐平等. 贝叶斯身世之谜——写在贝叶斯定理发表250周年之际[J]. 统计研究, 2013, 30(12): 3-9.

Leping Liu et al.. The Mysteries of Bayes--Celebrating 250 Years of Bayes’s Theorem[J]. Statistical Research, 2013, 30(12): 3-9.

贝叶斯身世之谜——写在贝叶斯定理发表250周年之际

The Mysteries of Bayes--Celebrating 250 Years of Bayes’s Theorem

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