关键词: 非正规部门, 周期反应, 后向关联

Abstract: Mainstream view regards the informal sector as the components of the weak groups caused by labor market segmentation, and formalizing the labor market has been a crucial policy target of Chinese government in recent years. Based on the perspective of the national economic and institutional sectors, this article studies the law of the informal sector development in the country. The estimation results of the cyclical reaction function do not support the market segmentation hypothesis. The ‘asymmetric conversion period’ development path implies that the interior of the informal sector is not the homogenization but ‘Upper Tier informal sector’ and ‘Low Tier informal sector’ differentiation. According to the characteristics that it is more sensitive in prosperity than in the recession, we propose a theoretical hypothesis that the development of the informal sector is an explained result of the interaction between economic cycles and the backward linkage effects of the formal sector. Furthermore, the article confirms the hypothesis using input-output table data.

Key words: Informal Sector, Cyclical Reaction, Backward Linkage