统计研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 41-44.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

购买力平价及其在亚洲新兴市场中的实证分析

王娟   

  • 出版日期:2012-03-15 发布日期:2012-03-22

The Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Its Empirical Testing in Asia’s Emerging Markets

Wang Juan   

  • Online:2012-03-15 Published:2012-03-22

摘要: 作为最重要的汇率决定理论之一,购买力平价被广泛应用于实证研究,但是重点针对亚洲新兴市场的研究依然有限。本文对七个亚洲新兴市场进行了购买力平价理论长期均衡关系的实证检验分析。针对购买力平价理论,作者运用单位根检验和协整检验进行数据分析。数据采用1957年至2011年的汇率(以美元作为基础汇率)及季度价格水平(本文采用CPI作为价格水平指数)。实证检验结果表明购买力平价理论的长期均衡在亚洲新兴市场中均不成立。文章最后提出了一些或许会导致其不理想结论的因素,并针对文章的实证研究得出新的改进方法。

Abstract: As the one of most important exchange rate determination theories, the Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) Theory is widely applied in empirical research, but rarely mentioned in Asia’s emerging markets. This paper states the empirical findings from a study of seven Asia’s emerging markets in the condition of the long term PPP. The absolute version of PPP proposition is tested by the unit root and cointegration tests using quarterly observations of exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels (CPI) from 1957 to 2011 (against the U.S.). The tests indicate that the PPP hypothesis would not hold in all of the emerging economies in the long term. The factors may cause the poor performance are presented in the final section and the new approaches could be applied in the future researches.

Key words: Purchasing Power Parity, Asia’s Emerging Markets, Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test