论外汇推动型通货膨胀及其治理——兼评输入型通货膨胀假说

统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 56-61.

论外汇推动型通货膨胀及其治理——兼评输入型通货膨胀假说

杨缅昆

出版日期:2011-11-15 发布日期:2011-11-01

On the Inflation Pushed by Foreign Currency and Its Corresponding Control Measures ——Including Comments on the Hypothesis of Imported Inflation

Yang Miankun

Online:2011-11-15 Published:2011-11-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对我国当前通货膨胀如何定性，是正确制定和实施宏观调控政策的重要前提。本文针对目前的一种主流观点，即将我国当前的通货膨胀定性为“输入型”的观点，提出了相左的看法。在此基础上，通过建立经济模型，并借助统计资料，从理论上论证了我国当前通货膨胀属于“外汇推动型”。以这一认识为前提，指出为了避免通货膨胀的“硬着陆”，防止在治理通货膨胀过程中导致国内经济受到伤害，有必要重新调整宏观调控措施。为此针对外汇推动型通货膨胀的特点，提出了若干“软着陆”的宏观调控措施的建议。

关键词: 输入型通货膨胀, 外汇推动型通货膨胀, 宏观调控措施

Abstract: It is an important prerequisite for the making and implementing of correct macro-control policies to determine the nature of current inflation in our country. This paper proposes a view different from the mainstream that identifies our current inflation as an Imported Type, and then by employing sufficient statistics it proves in theory that our current inflation belongs to a Foreign-Currency-Push Type. Based on this concept, the paper points out the necessity to readjust our macro-control measures so as to avoid the hard landing of inflation and the damage to our internal economy done during the process of inflation curb. Therefore, regarding the characteristics of the inflation pushed by foreign currency, this paper provides several macro-control measures on its soft landing.

Key words: Imported Inflation, Foreign-Currency-Push Inflation, Macro-control Measures

杨缅昆. 论外汇推动型通货膨胀及其治理——兼评输入型通货膨胀假说[J]. 统计研究, 2011, 28(11): 56-61.

Yang Miankun. On the Inflation Pushed by Foreign Currency and Its Corresponding Control Measures ——Including Comments on the Hypothesis of Imported Inflation[J]. , 2011, 28(11): 56-61.