关键词: 通货膨胀预期, 通货膨胀粘性, 最大熵自举

Abstract: This article studies the structure and properties of inflation expectation in China under the Structural Phillips Curve with the micro-economic foundation. According to the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap estimation and inference results, firms adjust price once every three quarters in average, and the inflation sticky hypothesis is not in accordance with China’s macro quarterly data. Rational expectation is stronger than adaptive expectation in the process of firms setting price. Meanwhile, inflation persistence is the main force behind the real economics. Based on China’s quarterly data, the empirical result shows that the central bank should strengthen the foreseeing, persistency and transparency of monetary policy in order to managing the inflation expectation more validly.

Key words: Inflation Expectation, Inflation Sticky, Maximum Entropy Bootstrap