统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4): 73-79.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

偏离-份额分析空间模型及其应用

吴继英 赵喜仓   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-04-15 发布日期:2009-04-15

Spatial Shift-Share Analysis Model: Introduction and Application

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-04-15 Published:2009-04-15

摘要: 传统的偏离-份额分析模型没有考虑区域之间的空间交互作用,为此国外出现了空间拓展模型的探索、论证与应用,然而目前国内仍主要停留在对传统模型的应用。本文探讨了如何构建空间权重矩阵来表示区域间的空间相互作用,并介绍了国外较成熟的偏离-份额分析空间模型,以江苏为例应用传统模型和空间模型进行了实证对比分析。结果表明,江苏省第二、三产业在全国具有较强的竞争力,经济总量及各产业的增长中,竞争力因素比产业结构因素贡献更大;但相对周边邻近省份,江苏省各产业并没有表现出竞争优势;邻近省份对江苏经济增长产生了较大的正面影响,但江苏没有能够充分利用这种影响,因此带来了一定的理论经济损失。

Abstract: Aiming at that the classical shift-share analysis model not including the interaction among regions, spatially extended shift-share analysis model was put forward and applied abroad, but domestic applications were still limited to the classical model. The paper introduces how to definite a spatial weight matrix to express the spatial interactions among regions and introduces the widely used spatial shift-share analysis model, then does some comparative demonstration analysis using the two models. The results show that the secondary and tertiary industries of Jiangsu Province has strong competitiveness nationwide, and the competitive effect contributed more than the industry-mix effect to the growth of the economics gross and the three industries. But the three industries of Jiangsu showed no competitiveness against its neighbors and the neighbors brought positive impact to the economy growth of Jiangsu. However, Jiangsu failed to take advantage of this impact ant thus resulted in some theoretical economic loss.


 

Key words: shift-share analysis, classical shift-share analysis model, spatial weight matrix, spatial shift-share analysis model