死亡率预测模型的新进展

统计研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (9): 81-84.

死亡率预测模型的新进展

王晓军蔡正高

中国人民大学统计学院

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-09-15 发布日期:2008-09-15

New Developments on Mortality Projection Model

Wang Xiaojun & Cai Zhenggao

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-09-15 Published:2008-09-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近半个世纪以来，世界范围内，人口死亡率整体上呈现下降趋势。而依据传统死亡模型对死亡率的预测往往高于实际水平，这给养老金财务安排和养老年金的成本核算带来了严重的不利影响。本文沿着死亡率模型的发展轨迹，回顾和总结了各类死亡率预测模型，对死亡率预测模型的最新进展做出评述，并对中国死亡率预测模型的选取给出了建议。

关键词: 确定型死亡率模型, 随机死亡率模型, 小波转换

Abstract: In the past half century, population mortality has obvious decline trend in the world. The projection by traditional mortality models is generally higher than the actual level, which causes serious influence on the pension financial plans and cost calculation of annuities. Following the development trace of mortality models, this paper reviews and summarizes various mortality projection models, then gives some comments on the new developments of mortality projection models and puts forward some suggestions on the selection of mortality model to forcast Chinese mortality.

Key words: Deterministic mortality model, Stochastic mortality model, Wavelet transform

王晓军蔡正高. 死亡率预测模型的新进展[J]. 统计研究, 2008, 25(9): 81-84.

Wang Xiaojun &Cai Zhenggao. New Developments on Mortality Projection Model[J]. Statistical Research, 2008, 25(9): 81-84.