统计研究 ›› 2007, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (8): 48-52.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

人民币汇率与地区差距 ——人民币国际化的视角

徐奇渊 李婧 刘力臻
  

  1. 东北师范大学经济学院
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-08-15 发布日期:2007-08-15

Exchange Rate of RMB and Regional Gaps ——Perspective of RMB Internationalization

Xu Qiyuan; Li Jing ;Liu Lizhen   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-08-15 Published:2007-08-15

摘要: 本文分析了人民币汇率对国内地区差距产生影响的两种传导机制,即对外商品贸易和外国直接投资两种渠道。为检验此结论,将全国分为东、中、西和东北四大地区,计算Theil系数得到地区差距的指标体系;再结合人民币的实际有效汇率,利用滞后阶数扩展VAR模型(LA-VAR)的方法进行实证分析,得到结论:人民币汇率对国内地区差距具有显著格兰杰影响,广义脉冲响应函数的分析还进一步揭示了影响的方向。这说明,人民币汇率波动对各地区的冲击具有非对称性,基于Grauwe(2003)的研究:人民币版图内的货币体系运行具有较高的净成本。在此现状下急于推进人民币国际化,是缺乏稳健性的。

关键词: 人民币汇率, 地区差距, 人民币国际化

Abstract: It is analyzed in this paper there are two transmission mechanisms that regional gaps are affected by RMB exchange rate. These two mechanisms are foreign trade and foreign direct investment. In order to identify the analysis, the whole of China is divided into four parts: eastern, middle, western and north east China. Theil index is calculated and we get the index system which reflects the regional gaps. With the Lag-Augmented VAR model, an interesting conclusion is arrived that there is Granger Causality between Theil index and RMB exchange rate. At last, the conclusion goes further by generalized impulse response function. Based on the research of Grauwe(2003), the net cost to operate the RMB monetary system is quite higher. It’s lack of solidity to promote the RMB internationalization under this condition.


 

Key words: Exchange Rate of RMB, Regional Gaps, RMB Internationalization