利用概率模型估算广东篮球彩票的中奖概率

统计研究 ›› 2007, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (7): 75-78.

利用概率模型估算广东篮球彩票的中奖概率

金华

华南师范大学数学科学学院概率统计系

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-07-15 发布日期:2007-07-15

Estimating the Probability of Winning a Prize in Guangdong Basketball Lottery Based on Probability Models

Jin Hua

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-07-15 Published:2007-07-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2006年足球单场竞猜异常火爆,而全国联网篮彩却一直惨淡经营,竞猜型广东篮球彩票也只试行四个月就夭折,主要问题是篮球玩法和奖金设置不够合理.如何挽救低迷中的篮彩.是一个值得研究的课题,为使广东篮彩成为未来篮彩市场的主流.本文建议提高广东篮彩一等奖的返奖率,并给予保本优惠,再增设二等奖,在此基础上利用美国全国篮球联赛2004-2005赛季的数据建立概率模型来估计中奖概率,为奖金合理设置提供有益的参考.

关键词: 广东篮球彩票, 中奖概率, 概率模型

Abstract: Abstract:It＇s extremely prevalent to gamble on a single football match in 2006, but the national basketball lottery is going by painstaking effort, while Guangdong basketball lottery has come to a premature end only after a four-month trial implementation. The main problems include unreasonable rules of basketball lottery and prize installation. How to remedy the basketball lottery in depression is a topic being worth studying. In order to help Guangdong lottery become main stream in near future, we suggest to raise the proportion of money return with preferential minimum bonus, and also further set up a second prize. In this paper, we focus on establishing probability models to estimate the probability of winning a premium based on data from American National Basketball Association in 2004-2005, which may provide helpful reference for reasonable prize installation.

Key words: Key words:Guangdong Basketball Lottery, Probability of Winning a Premium, Probability Models

金华. 利用概率模型估算广东篮球彩票的中奖概率[J]. 统计研究, 2007, 24(7): 75-78.

Jin Hua. Estimating the Probability of Winning a Prize in Guangdong Basketball Lottery Based on Probability Models[J]. Statistical Research, 2007, 24(7): 75-78.