统计研究 ›› 2004, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (8): 20-5.
• 论文 •
Abstract: Since the reform and opening, the economy of our country has appeared obvious Juglar periodicphenomenon. The present economy expansion is just the embodiment of this periodic relation. Seeing fromthe periodic relation, the growth rate of investment will reach the top point in this year, then turn torecession ; the growth rate of economy will reach the top point in the next year and then turn to recession.Though the extent of the recession is not as so serious as last period it will continue several years. Thecorrect way of keeping the economy stable is to adopt the expansion policy that is mild and takes with thestructural adjustment, but mot the retrenchment policy. The latter one will make the economy never be ableto recover after a setback just as the “soft-landing“ policy in the last period,
杨文进 . 从周期关系看当前的经济形势及其趋势[J]. 统计研究, 2004, 21(8): 20-5.
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