关键词: 普适引力模型, 贸易分解, 亚太地区合作

Abstract: With the statistical decomposition method of four trade growth factors based on universal gravity equation, the paper identifies the trade growth driving factors of China’s imports and exports to 18 countries on the Pacific Rim and their dynamic changes in 1998—2019. Main research findings show that China’s economic growth is the main driving factor for China’s imports and exports to the Asia-Pacific region, contributing over 60% of both import and export; the contribution of the decline in trade costs to the growth of regional trade needs to be improved. The trade decomposition structure between China and the Pacific Rim region presents certain homogeneity. In addition, multilateral resistance terms mainly hinder the growth of China’s imports from the region, meaning China imports a large number of products from other regions of the world in this period. And the multilateral resistance has a relatively lesser effect on China’s export growth. Trade barriers are increasingly hindering China-US trade after 2013, especially in China’s export to US. The paper provides a new statistical decomposition model for the identification of trade growth factors and related measurement, and provide a policy reference for China’s future regional cooperation.

Key words: Universal Gravity Model, Trade Decomposition, Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation