统计研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 91-104.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2023.06.007

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长江经济带发展战略能否提升地区绿色创新能力——基于准自然实验的证据

曾 萍 肖 静   

  • 出版日期:2023-06-25 发布日期:2023-06-25

Can the Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Strategy Enhance Regional Green Innovation Capability: Based on the Evidence from Quasi-natural Experiments

Zeng Ping Xiao Jing   

  • Online:2023-06-25 Published:2023-06-25

摘要: 绿色创新是绿色发展和经济转型的必然选择。本文以长江经济带发展战略的实施为准自然实验,基于2008—2019年我国省域面板数据,采用双重差分法以及中介效应模型检验政策效果及其作用机制。结果显示:长江经济带发展战略对地区绿色创新能力有显著正向影响,这一基准回归结果通过了6种稳健性检验。异质性分析表明,长江经济带发展战略对地区绿色创新能力的正向促进作用呈下中上游递减的差异格局,存在明显的区域异质性。作用机制检验表明,长江经济带发展战略可以通过促进环境规制、新型城镇化、创新投入以提升地区绿色创新能力,其中环境规制发挥完全中介作用,新型城镇化、创新投入发挥部分中介作用。本文可为长江经济带各省份提升绿色创新能力提供一定经验和证据。

关键词: 长江经济带发展战略, 绿色创新能力, 准自然实验, 中介效应

Abstract: Green innovation is an inevitable choice for green development and economic transformation. The study uses the implementation of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Strategy as a quasi-natural experiment to test the policy effect and its mechanism using Chinese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2019, the difference-in-difference method as well as the mediating effect model. The results show that: The Yangtze River Economic Belt development strategy has a significant positive impact on regional green innovation capacity, and this benchmark regression result passes six robustness tests. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive promotion effect of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the regional green innovation capability shows a decreasing pattern in the lower, middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River, and there is obvious regional heterogeneity. The mechanism test shows that the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt can improve the regional green innovation capability by promoting environmental regulation, new urbanization and innovation investment. Among them, environmental regulation plays a complete mediating role, and new urbanization and innovation investment play a partial mediating role. The paper provides certain experience and evidence for the provinces along in the Yangtze River Economic Belt to promote their green innovation capacity.

Key words: Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Strategy, Green Innovation Capability, Quasi-natural Experiment, Mediating Effect