关键词: 外部经济不确定性, 外部金融不确定性, 宏观经济下行风险, QVAR模型, 条件预测分布

Abstract: This paper selects 101 dimensional indicators reflecting 11 levels of China’s external economic and financial conditions to synthesize the external economic uncertainty index and the external financial uncertainty index of China’s economy, and uses the QVAR model to analyze and compare their impact characteristics on the macro-economy at different economic growth rates, then further evaluates the downside risk of China’s macro-economy and studies the risk governance path under the impact of external uncertainties through conditional forecast distribution. The results show that: firstly, the external economic and financial uncertainties faced by the Chinese economy show frequent volatility and significant phased differences. Especially in recent years, the intensification of trade friction makes the external economic uncertainty significantly greater than the external financial uncertainty. Secondly, the external economic and financial uncertainties have significant nonlinear impact characteristics on China’s macro-economy. When the economy is in a downward trend, the negative impacts of the two are greater, and the negative impact of external economic uncertainty is more obvious. Thirdly, external economic and financial uncertainties can provide important forecasting information for macroeconomic downside risk, and higher external economic and financial uncertainties will significantly amplify the downside risk of the macro-economy. When both are at a low level, they will help to provide policy space for mitigating macroeconomic downside risk. The research in this article provides useful policy implications for effectively resisting the impact of external uncertainty and promoting the modernization of the downside risk prevention system and governance capacity under the new development stage.

Key words: External Economic Uncertainty, External Financial Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Downside Risk, Quantile Vector Autoregression Model, Conditional Forecast Distribution