统计研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 135-145.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.02.010

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部分函数型线性变系数模型的序列相关检验

谭祥勇 李倩 方月歆   

  • 出版日期:2021-02-25 发布日期:2021-02-25

Test of Serial Correlation in Partially Functional Linear Varying Coefficient Models

Tan Xiangyong Li Qian Fang Yuexin   

  • Online:2021-02-25 Published:2021-02-25

摘要: 部分函数型线性变系数模型(PFLVCM)是近几年出现的一个比较灵活、应用广泛的新模型。在实际应用中,搜集到的经济和金融数据往往存在序列相关性。如果不考虑数据间的相关性直接对其进行建模,会影响模型中参数估计的精度和有效性。本文主要研究了PFLVCM中误差的序列相关性的检验问题,基于经验似然,把标量时间序列数据相关性检验的方法拓展到函数型数据中,提出了经验对数似然比检验统计量,并在零假设下得到了检验统计量的近似分布。通过蒙特卡洛数值模拟说明该统计量在有限样本下有良好的水平和功效。最后,把该方法用于检验美国商业用电消费数据是否有序列相关性,证明该统计量的有效性和实用性。

关键词: 函数型数据分析, 部分函数型线性变系数模型, 序列相关检验, 经验似然

Abstract: Partially functional linear varying coefficient model (PFLVCM) was proposed in recent years as a new flexible model and gets widely used. In application, the economic and financial data collected often have serial correlation. Direct modeling without considering the correlation between the data will affect the accuracy and effectiveness of parameter estimation. This paper studies the serial correlation test for PFLVCM errors.Based on empirical likelihood, we extend the correlation test method for scalar time series data to functional data. And we propose the empirical log-likelihood ratio test statistic, and prove that our test statistic has an approximate distribution under the null hypothesis. Monte Carlo numerical simulation results show that the proposed test statistic has good performances in both size and power with finite sample size. Finally, the method is used to test whether the data of commercial electricity consumption in the United States has serial correlation,which proves the validity and practicability of the statistic.

Key words: Functional Data Analysis, Partially Functional Linear Varying Coefficient Model, Serial Correlation Test, Empirical Likelihood