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### 国际资本约束与顺周期财政政策

• 出版日期:2020-02-25 发布日期:2020-03-10

### International Capital Constraints and Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy

Lin Feng & Deng Kebin

• Online:2020-02-25 Published:2020-03-10

Abstract: The Western mainstream regards the pro-cyclical fiscal policy as a suboptimal choice, which leads to the controversy of the fiscal pro-cyclicality in developing countries. This paper establishes a theoretical model to prove that the international capital constraints are an important cause of pro-cyclical fiscal policies in developing countries. Using the panel data from 125 developing countries in 1960 to 2016, the empirical evidence is robust and in line with theoretical expectations. The results show that developing countries tend to exhibit strong fiscal pro-cyclicality. It still holds true when corrected for potential endogeneity, and real GDP growth rate with weighted trade partners and real return rate of weighted US bonds are introduced as effective instrument variables. With 1 unit decline in sovereign credit rating, the fiscal procyclicality tends to increase by 5.83%. It suggests that international capital constraints caused by their inferior position in international capital markets play a crucial role in the adoption of pro-cyclical fiscal policies in developing countries. This paper enriches the discussion on the causes of fiscal pro-cyclicality in developing countries, and provides policy suggestions for deepening international cooperation and mutual assistance among developing countries.