统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (10): 3-14.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.10.001

• •    下一篇

中国城市住宅资本存量及资本回报率的估算

陈英楠 吉晓萌   

  • 出版日期:2018-10-25 发布日期:2018-10-22

The Estimation of Residential Capital Stock and the Return on Capital Ratio in Chinese Cities

Chen Yingnan & Ji Xiaomeng   

  • Online:2018-10-25 Published:2018-10-22

摘要: 基于永续盘存法,本文创新性地估算了1997-2016年285个地级及以上城市的住宅资本存量,在此基础上,我们细致讨论了城市层面住宅资本存量的基本特征,并估计了住宅资本的回报率。估算结果表明:第一,从总体城市来看,住宅资本存量的年均增长率明显高于GDP的年均涨幅。第二,各地区和各分线城市的人均住宅资本存量均呈不断上升趋势;其中,西部地区和二线城市的人均住宅资本存量增速更为迅猛。第三,近年来,除一线城市的住宅资本回报率有所上升以外,其他地区的住宅资本回报率均表现出大幅下降的趋势,即住宅投资效率在不断下降。但分地区、分线城市住宅资本回报率的变化呈现收敛特征。综上,应该警惕住宅资本存量的快速增长可能对投资效率带来的负面影响。

关键词: 住宅, 资本存量, 资本回报率, 地级及以上城市

Abstract: Based on the perpetual inventory method, this paper innovatively estimates the residential capital stock of 285 prefecture or higher-level cities in China in the period of 1997-2016. We discussed the characteristics of residential capital stock and also estimate the return on capital ratio. The estimate results show that the first point is the annual growth rate of residential capital stock is remarkably higher than annual growth rate of GDP for all cities; the second one is cities in every region and every tier (especially those in western region or second-tier) have been seen a continuous upward trend in per residential capital stock; the third one is that the return on capital ratio of all cities in every region and every tier shows a continuous downward feature, except for the first-tier city. However, the differences of the return on capital ratio in regions or tiers are shrinking. In short, the rapid growth of residential capital stock may have negative impacts on investment efficiency, and this should have paid more attention.

Key words: Housing, Capital Stock, Return on Capital Ratio, Prefecture or Higher-Level City