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Study on Zi Zhi Tong Jian and Government Statistics
Xian Zude Lei Qibiao
Statistical Research    2024, 41 (1): 4-17.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2024.01.001
Abstract434)            Save
Compiled by the Northern Song historian Sima Guang, Zi Zhi Tong Jian contains a wealth of statistical data covering household registration and population, taxation and corvée, military intelligence, agricultural production and many other aspects, which is an extremely valuable historical basis for studying the evolution of government statistics in ancient China. In order to summarize the historical experience and learn from historical wisdom, this paper is based on a detailed exploration and in-depth interpretation of statistical activities, data, statistical thought and methods in Zi Zhi Tong Jian. Focusing on typical cases and highlighting data governance, this paper portrays and summarizes the situation of government statistics in China during the Five Dynasties and its previous periods from three respects: the organization and implementation of government statistics, the coverage and main contents of government statistics, and the prevention and punishment of statistical fraud. The study finds that: firstly, government statistics in ancient China started early and became more and more mature and stable; secondly, statistics has always been highly valued, and has increasingly become an effective tool for national governance and an important basis for relevant decision-making; thirdly, the problem of statistical fraud occurred from time to time, and the efforts to prevent and punish it were great; fourthly, the degree of collection and utilization of statistical data was highly correlated with the economic and social conditions; and fifthly, statistics was deeply integrated with other fields, and there was a lack of research on specialized statistical issues.
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The Measurement Analysis of Chinese Middle-Income Group Based on Vulnerability Theory: Empirical Evidence from CFPS Data
Sun Bochi Lv Guangming
Statistical Research    2023, 40 (11): 3-16.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2023.11.001
Abstract851)            Save
Given the shortcomings of existing middle-income group definitions, marked by a lack of theoretical foundation, mechanical operations, and low result accuracy, the paper proposes a refined definition based on vulnerability theory, characterizing the middle-income group as economically stable and non-vulnerable. And then the paper employs vulnerability estimation and kernel density methods to establish upper and lower limits for vulnerability within this group based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), then estimates the proportion of the middle-income group in China, analyzes the micro driving factors of family entry and exit from the middle-income group and judges the evolution trend of the proportion of the middle-income group. The results show that: Firstly, the definition standard of the middle-income group in China can be set as 1% and 10% of the vulnerability corresponding to the family per capita persistent income, and the corresponding proportions in 2014 and 2016 are 29.82% and 32.71%, respectively. There are obvious differences in urban-rural and regional distribution, and urban and eastern regions have tended to form an olive-shaped distribution pattern. Secondly, factors such as human capital, occupation, family burden, and income structure play crucial roles in propelling families into the middle-income group. To meet the 2035 target of “achieving more significant substantive progress in common prosperity”, the per capita persistent income growth rates for the high-income and low-income groups should be a minimum of 3% and 5%, respectively, from 2016 to 2035.
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The Logic and Path of Expanding Middle-Income Group: Quantitative Analysis Based on International Experience and Chinese Practice
Li Jinchang et al
Statistical Research    2023, 40 (7): 3-16.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2023.07.001
Abstract841)            Save
Expanding the middle-income group is an important means to achieve common prosperity. Based on the definition and measurement criteria of middle-income groups, a statistical method to measure the share of the middle-income group using macro statistics is proposed and used to explore the inner pattern of changes in the size of the middle-income group. The paper measures the share and distribution characteristics of middle-income groups in 127 countries and regions based on the statistics released by the World Bank and focuses on the relationship between the share of middle-income group and the Gini coefficient, to summarize the reasonable share of middle-income group and the internal logic of expanding middle-income group in the context of common prosperity. The paper also measures the share of middle-income group and quantitatively analyzes its change effects using the data from 2003 to 2021 in China. Based on this, the practical path of expanding the middle-income group is analyzed to provide an objective basis for promoting common prosperity by expanding the middle-income group in the new development stage of China.
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Research on the Concept and Characteristics of Statistical Supervision in the New Era
Mao Youfeng et al.
Statistical Research    2022, 39 (7): 3-11.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.07.001
Abstract1989)            Save
Fully leveraging the functions of statistical supervision is a key decision approved by the Central Commission for Comprehensively Deepening Reform and adopted by the 19 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. Strengthening statistical supervision is a critical step to play the comprehensive and fundamental role of official statistics in economic and social development, and it is also an important component in advancing the modernization of China's system and capacity for governance.Statistical supervision refers to supervision, urging and inspection by the supervising body to supervised targets on implementation of the key decisions made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council,fulfillment of statistical duties by the laws, regulations and institutions, improvement of data quality, etc.; it also refers to statistical monitoring and comprehensive evaluation of economic and social performance. As an important component of the Party and State Supervision System, statistical supervision includes the concept of supervision of public power, supervision of law enforcement, monitoring and evaluation,supervision of statistical management. Its main forms include statistical inspection, statistical law enforcement and inspection, monitoring and evaluation, supervision of statistical institutions, data quality assessment. Each of the form has its own supervising body, supervised targets and content, making an integrated, collaborative and binding statistical supervision system.
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Discussion on Statistical Monitoring and Evaluation of Common Prosperity
Li Jinchang Yu Wei
Statistical Research    2022, 39 (2): 3-17.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.02.001
Accepted: 25 February 2022

Abstract3724)            Save
By the middle of this century, China will basically realize the common prosperity of all the people. What is common prosperity? What are the main factors affecting common prosperity? Which indicators can reflect the characteristics of common prosperity? How to monitor the process of common prosperity? These problems need to be scientifically interpreted with statistics. This paper combs the relevant discussions on common prosperity and the relevant discussions on anti-poverty. Then on the basis of reinterpreting the connotation of common prosperity in the new era, with “people-centered” and “sharing, prosperous and sustainable” as the main points, focusing on the two key words of “common” and “prosperity”, aiming at the three gaps between urban and rural areas, regions and income, we build a common prosperity process index system composed of six first-class indicators: simultaneous growth of economic quality and efficiency, coordinated and balanced development, rich spiritual life, global beauty construction, social harmony and public service enjoyment, and a common prosperity outcome index system composed of three first-class indicators: sharing, prosperity and sustainability. At last, we take Zhejiang Province as an example to measure the realization degree of Zhejiang’s common prosperity in 2015—2020.
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Research on the Statistics and Accounting of Personal Data
Xu Xianchun et al
Statistical Research    2022, 39 (2): 18-32.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.02.002
Abstract1717)            Save
Data as an important factor of production has gradually become a consensus, and personal data is an important part of enterprise and government’s data, which plays an important role in the production and operation of enterprises and the management of the government. What kind of personal data can become data assets, and how large are the scale of the assets are currently unanswered questions. We try to answer these questions, which are of great significance for constructing a data asset accounting framework accurately and meticulously. This paper discusses the concept, classification and characteristics of personal data, and analyzes the production process of personal data using data pyramid and data value chain, as well as defines the scope of personal data assets. At the same time, this paper is based on five typical consumer internet platforms such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD and Meituan to conduct a trial calculation of their personal data asset, and implement the personal data valuation method using Chinese corporate. Furthermore, we propose the establishment of data asset accounting framework based on the combination of data supply and demand. Finally, we discuss the problems and solutions in the use of personal data, in an attempt to provide a decision-making reference for the sustainable use of personal data.
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Measurement and Prediction of the Scale of the Core Industries in China’s Digital Economy
Xian Zude Wang Tianqi
Statistical Research    2022, 39 (1): 4-14.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2022.01.001
Abstract3495)            Save
For the first time, based on the Statistical Classification of the Digital Economy and Its Core Industries (2021) issued by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in June 2021, this article uses the data of the fourth national economic census carried out in 2018 to construct a digital economy measurement framework, measures and predicts the scale of the core industries in China’ s digital economy. The research results of this paper provide a data basis for systematically observing the status quo and development trend of the core industries of the digital economy, and understanding the characteristics of China’ s digital economy industrial structure, and give reference for further improving the digital economy scale measurement framework and scientifically formulating policies to promote the development of the digital economy.
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Green Finance and High-quality Economic Development: Mechanism, Characteristics and Empirical Study
Shi Daimin Shi Xiaoyan
Statistical Research    2022, 39 (1): 31-48.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2022.01.003
Abstract2903)            Save
In-depth study of the impact mechanism of green finance on the quality of economic growth forms the basis to build the system of green finance and promote high-quality economic development. This paper uses green total factor productivity ( TFP) to measure the quality of economic development, constructs an endogenous economic growth model that includes green credit, green investment, green securities, carbon finance and so on, and explains the impact mechanism, effection and characteristics of green finance on green total factor productivity from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The research results show the improvement of the green finance level promotes the increase of green TFP; there is a nonlinear relationship between green finance and green total factor productivity, and the threshold effect exists. When the green finance development index is lower than the threshold, the green finance development index has an insignificant impact on the green total factor productivity. When the green finance development index is higher than the threshold, the green finance development index has a greater impact on green total factor productivity. Further study shows that the green finance development index is lower than the threshold in most provinces of China. This paper provides a reference for building a theoretic system of green finance, as well as evidence to promote the development of green finance with different focuses, by stages and regions to improve the green TFP and ultimately realize high-quality economic development.
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How to Measure the Information of Central Bank Governor′s Verbal Communication: A Textual Analysis Method Based on Supervised Learning
Lin Jianhao et al.
Statistical Research    2019, 36 (8): 3-18.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.08.001
Abstract3549)            Save
Based on the verbal communication of the Central Bank Governor of China from January 2003 to August 2018, this paper generates a special dictionary for Central Bank Governor communication, and then constructs the monetary policy index and economic outlook index using the phrase weighting method. The monetary policy index can better fit the changes in the actual benchmark interest rate and deposit reserve ratio, and the economic outlook index can be used as an annulus for economic fundamentals. Furthermore, based on the supervised learning method, tendentious key words and their probability distribution are obtained by training the subsample dictionary, and the new communication text is automatically classified by the texting classifier, finally the new communication event is indexed. The supervised learning of the subsamples has similar results with the full sample information, indicating that the Central Bank’s verbal communication measure is replicable and extensible.
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Research on the Impact of China’s Systemic Financial Risks on the Macroeconomy
Ouyang Zisheng et al.
Statistical Research    2019, 36 (8): 19-31.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.08.002
Abstract3697)            Save
Based on the monthly data from January 2007 to December 2017, this paper first selects 14 representative indicators from four respects—the extreme value risks of financial institutions, the contagion effects between financial systems, the volatility and instability of financial markets, and the liquidity and credit risks of financial markets—to measure the systemic financial risk. Secondly, the quantile regression is used to measure the impact of individual systemic risk indicators on the macro economy. Finally, a partial least squares quantile regression method is used to construct a systemic risk comprehensive indicator and empirically analyze the impact of systemic financial risk on the macro economy. The results show that: ① The indicators under the institutional extreme risk category of the individual systemic financial risk index have the greatest impact on the macro economy, among which the CATFIN has the most significant effect; ② The systemic risk comprehensive index constructed by partial least squares quantile regression can more stably reflect the impact of systemic financial risks on the macro economy than individual systemic risk indicators; ③ From the measurement effect, the individual systemic risk index and the comprehensive systemic risk index in the lower tail distribution (0.2 quantile) are significantly better than the middle distribution (0.5 quantile) and the upper tail distribution (0.8 quantile).
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Sino-US Trade Friction, Import Shock from the United States and Innovation of China’s Enterprises
Wei Hao et al.
Statistical Research    2019, 36 (8): 46-59.   DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.08.004
Abstract3192)            Save
In the context of escalating Sino-US trade friction, this paper empirically studies the impacts of import competition from the United States on the innovation of China’s enterprises based on highly disaggregated micro enterprise data. The results show that: ① Overall, import competition from the United States has optimized the patent application structure of Chinese enterprises. Specifically, import competition from the United States has a significant positive effect on the number of invention patent applications, but has no significant effect on the number of utility patent and design patent applications. ② The influence of import competition from the United States on the highquality innovation of different enterprises is significant but heterogeneous. Import competition from the United States promotes highquality innovation in lowproductivity firms more than in highproductivity firms. Import competition from the United States has a significant effect on the highquality innovation of domestic enterprises, but has no significant effect on the highquality innovation of foreign enterprises. Import competition from the United States has a significant effect on the highquality innovation of enterprises with low financing constraints, but has no significant effect on the high-quality innovation of enterprises with high financing constraints. ③ Import competition from the United States increases the risk of Chinese companies exiting the market. In order to cope with the import competition from the United States, domestic enterprises promote the high-quality innovation by increasing investment in R&D and skilled workers as well as employment structure and scale improvement, which has resulted in the effect of escape competition.
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