关键词: 季度GDP, 数据质量, 评估指标体系, 空间面板数据模型

Abstract: The suspicion of scholars both at home and abroad on the quality of China’s GDP has transferred from annual data to quarter ones, and from the national data to the regional. This paper uses spatial panel data model to make an empirical test of the quality of provincial quarterly GDP by designing a systematic and feasible evaluation index system for quarterly data of GDP. The results show that the matching between Chinese provincial quarterly GDP and the respective economic indicators is comparatively well, the quality of data is also relatively high and there is no significant distortion on the whole; From the time point of view, the overestimation in a certain degree exists in the GDP data in the first and second quarter every year, and there is the underestimation of the third and fourth quarterly data of GDP, but the statistical deviation is insignificant; In the view of region, although the half are overestimated and the other are underestimated, most of this biased degree is not statistically notable. And furthermore, the paper analyzes their reasons.

Key words: Quarterly GDP, Data Quality, Evaluation Index System, Spatial Panel Data Model