关键词: 可竞争产品, 贸易收支, 向量误差修正模型, 脉冲响应函数分析

Abstract: China’s exports fall into the ambit of the scope of contestable products, while the products from different manufacturers are heterogeneous, but because of the low entering barriers, and then its pricing model is the same as fully competitive products. The empirical tests between China’s major exports’ scale and export prices demonstrate that despite China’s main exports are very large in scale, but it is difficult to refuse the assumption that the price does not affected by the export scale in the empirical analysis, and then the assumption that China’s main exports are fully competitive cannot be denied. On this basis, this paper constructed a simple model how the trade balance decided and an empirical examination equation in fully competitive conditions. Based on co-integration test, the paper established a vector error correction model (VECM) to analyze the impact of the variables’ change in the impulse response function. The empirical analysis shows that China’s trade balance was intrinsically linked with the market structure of exports indeed.

Key words: contestable products, trade balance, VECM, impulse response function