关键词: 生育, 工资率, 队列效应, 分层生长曲线模型

Abstract: Capitalizing on 9 waves of longitudinal survey data from China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted in more than twenty years, this paper examines women’s childbearing impacts on wage rate and the wage growth rate using hierarchical growth curve model, and investigates the long-term effects and cohort effects of this impact. The results show that there exists a significant negative relationship between childbearing and women’s wage rate, and wage growth rate will slow down along with aging, thus showing a long-term effect of the impact; the later the birth cohort, the greater the impact of childbearing on the level of mother’s wage rate and its growth rate. At the same time, the cohort effect of the market sector is more obvious. The long-term effect and cohort effect of childbearing on women’s wage rate both provide a new perspective for understanding the long-term decline of birth rate and low fertility trend in China since 1990s. This paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on how to reduce the negative impact of childbearing on women’s wage income, that is, actively promote the implementation and effectiveness of the decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Optimizing Fertility Policies and promoting long-term balanced population development, improve the supporting measures to facilitate childbearing through a package of socio-economic policies, and speed up the construction of a family and childbearing friendly society.

Key words: Childbearing, Wage Rate, Cohort Effect, Multilevel Growth Curve Model