关键词: “中等收入陷阱”, 收入水平率, 制造业量比, 深度工业化, 先导和主导

Abstract: The paper designs the relative income level indicators to quantify, access and analyze Middle-Income-Trap(MIT). After escaping MIT, 2 indicators, Manufacturing-Industry-Quantifying-Ratio(R-manu) and Service-Industry-Quantifying-Ratio(R-ser) all rise to high levels and become the major parts of the Income-Quantifying-Ratio(R-income). The regressive equations of Non-Special-Endowment-Economies(NSEE) between ⊿R-sert and ⊿R-manut–i(i=0~2) illustrate that ⊿R-manut–i(i=0~2) can explain ⊿R-sert with positive elasticity. It means the variation of R-manu leading that of R-ser. The regressive results of mutual autoregressive distributed lagging models between R-manu and R-ser illustrate that the influencing elasticity of R-manu to R-ser is much larger than that of R-ser to R-manu. It means that R-manu is dominant in the mutual relationship. The leading and dominance of manufacture industry shows that manufacture industry is the crux for NSEE’ MIT- Escaping. International comparison instructs that China should still attach high importance to manufacturing industry development and should develop promoting linkages between manufacturing and tertiary industry.

Key words: Middle-income-trap；Per-capita Income Rate, Manufacturing-Industry-Quantifying-Ratio, Deep Industrialization, Leading and Dominance