基于偏离—份额分析法的贸易综合竞争力分析

统计研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (9): 44-49.

基于偏离—份额分析法的贸易综合竞争力分析

王翔陈江涛

出版日期:2013-09-15 发布日期:2013-09-04

Comprehensive Analysis of Trade Competitiveness Based On Shift-share Method

Wang Xiang & Chen Jiangtao

Online:2013-09-15 Published:2013-09-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文运用偏离-份额方法并使用最新的国际贸易数据对国际贸易中出口的商品结构和竞争力进行了分析。本研究显示，中国的出口商品竞争力相对于德国和美国依然具有优势，总体上中国的农产品、能源和矿产、制造品三类商品的竞争力发展结构合理，未来一段时间竞争力大起大落的风险可能性较小，但是2005—2011年中国贸易综合竞争力份额连续下降的趋势也值得密切关注。

关键词: 偏离-份额, 出口竞争力, 商品结构

Abstract: This paper utilizes the shift-share method and the latest trade statistics data for the analysis of the export commodity structure and competitiveness in international trade. The WTO statistics data illustrates that China still remains higher export competitiveness over Germany and the United States. China has a balanced competiveness structure covers the agricultural products, fuels and mining products and, manufactures and it has a low risk of volatility in the near future. But continuous downward trend, from 2005 to 2011, of China's comprehensive competitiveness is also worth close noting.

Key words: shift-share, export competitiveness, commodity structure

王翔陈江涛. 基于偏离—份额分析法的贸易综合竞争力分析[J]. 统计研究, 2013, 30(9): 44-49.

Wang Xiang & Chen Jiangtao. Comprehensive Analysis of Trade Competitiveness Based On Shift-share Method[J]. , 2013, 30(9): 44-49.