关键词: 小域估计, 基本域层次模型, 基本单元层次模型, 农作物播种面积统计

Abstract: China's current agricultural crop surveys aimed at a provincial level planted area estimation for major crops. Currently, there is short of a solution to estimate planted area for rare crops for the lack of adequate samples due to their skewed distributions. At the same time, it is also difficult to obtain a precise county level estimation in terms of variation for the major crops based on direct expansion. It is becoming an imminent demand of the methodological study on estimation of planted area for rare crops in agricultural statistics. This paper applies the method of small area estimation to obtain more precise estimates on rare crops in the context of a pilot study of Yu Xian county in the Hebei province. Simulation studies were conducted by analyzing sampled villages from the real data of Yu Xian county as the sampling frame. It is illustrated that the method we used has improved the planted area estimation for rare crops from the angle of empirical perspective.

Key words: Small Area Estimation, Basic Area-level Model, Basic Unit-level Model, Planted Area Estimation.