关键词: Lee-Carter模型, 有限数据, 死亡率建模, 死亡率预测, 死亡率风险管理

Abstract: Lee-Carter model is the most popular method to model and forecast mortality in the world, and classical Lee-Carter model needs large amount of sample data to get better results. But there are limited and incomplete mortality sample data in China, it is difficult to apply the model directly to forecast the mortality. In this paper, based on the method which was proposed by Li et al(2004) , considering the limited data and applying “two-stochastic process” which was proposed by Han Meng et al(2010), we build a Chinese mortality model with limited data and forecast the mortality trend and life expectancy in the future, then by comparing the predicted results with the annual rates of mortality reduction in the insurance companies and annuity factor for individual accounts in social pension, we give some conclusions and suggestions about the mortality risk management.

Key words: Lee-Carter Model, Limited Data, Mortality Modeling, Mortality Forecasting, Mortality Risk Management