统计研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 27-32.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口分布的相对变化对我国地区间收入趋同的影响研究

田成诗 柴思露   

  • 出版日期:2012-06-15 发布日期:2012-06-20

Impact of Relative Population Change on Regional Income Convergence

Tian Chengshi & Chai Silu   

  • Online:2012-06-15 Published:2012-06-20

摘要: 本文利用省级面板数据研究了人口分布的相对变化对我国地区间收入趋同的影响。修正后的 -趋同分析结果显示,1978-2010年,我国地区间总收入和人均收入都表现为趋同模式,但人均收入的趋同速度比总收入趋同速度大约快16%。为了考察这一趋同速度上的差异,我们使用偏离—份额分析法考察了人口分布的相对变化对地区人均收入趋同过程的影响。分析结果表明,地区间人均收入趋同与人口分布的相对变化有显著关系。

Abstract: The paper analyzes the impact of relative population changes on regional income convergence with panel data of provinces in China. The modified -convergence analysis shows that both the income and per capita income between provinces indicate converging patterns in 1978-2010.But convergence speed of per capita income is about 16% faster than that of total income. In order to investigate the differences between the convergence speeds, we analyze the impact of relative population of changes on per capita income convergence process with the shift-share method. The analysis results show that, the proportion of the population changes can explain some of the convergence of per capita income.

Key words: Income Distribution, Per Capita Income , Convergence, Relative Change