关键词: 结构宏观计量经济学, 向量自回归, 实证宏观经济学

Abstract: Sargent and Sims are awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics because of their contributions to reconstructing and developing empirical macroeconomics. Instabilities appeared in the predominant macroeconometric paradigm of 1970s built around the Keynesian macroeconomic models, which failed to identify and analyze the external shocks when evaluating dynamic models of the macroeconomy with a central role for expectations. The modern structural macroeconometrics developed by Sargent and VAR by Sims have changed the course of macroeconomics dramatically. Their contributions constitute the core content of the macroeconomic empirical research, and indispensable empirical methods in modern academic communities and policymaking agencies.

Key words: Structural Macroeconometrics, Vector Autoregression, Empirical Macroeconomics