统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 3-12.

• 论文 •    下一篇

汇率变动、货币政策与通货膨胀

项后军 潘锡泉   

  • 出版日期:2011-05-15 发布日期:2011-05-20

Exchange Rate Change, Monetary Policy and Inflation

Xiang Houjun & Pan Xiquan   

  • Online:2011-05-15 Published:2011-05-20

摘要: 内容提要:本文运用内生结构突变检验与考虑结构突变的ARDL-ECM方法,并同时将货币政策变量纳入模型中从而把汇率变动、货币政策与通货膨胀联系起来重新对汇率传递问题进行了研究,发现人民币名义有效汇率分别在2003年4月和2005年9月发生了结构突变。在此背景下,本文发现汇率传递效应仍是不完全的,但其长期传递弹性却由2005年9月结构突变前的0.065迅速增大到了结构突变后的0.118,且与现实中自2006年开始的较高的通货膨胀环境也相当吻合,支持了Taylor(2000)提出的观点,但比起施建淮等(2008)得到的传递效应依然较弱,表明其所建议的可以通过人民币升值有效抑制通货膨胀的观点值得商榷。而体现货币政策的货币供应量增长率对CPI的长期传递弹性为2.254,远远高于汇率传递弹性,这显示完全可以运用独立的货币政策来稳定通货膨胀水平且相比于通过人民币升值的汇率政策来抑制通货膨胀具有更好的效果。

关键词: 关键词:结构突变, 汇率传递, ARDL-ECM, 边限检验

Abstract: Abstract:In this paper, endogenous structural breaks test and ARDL-ECM approach with structural changes, while monetary policy variables into the model so as to exchange rate change, monetary policy and inflation linked to re-pass the problem on the exchange rate has been studied and found that the RMB nominal effective exchange rate takes structural changes, respectively in April 2003 and September 2005. In this context, this paper found that although the exchange rate pass-through effect is still incomplete, but its long-term elasticity was passed in September 2005 by the structure change increased rapidly prior to 0.065 to 0.118 after the structural breaks, and with the reality since 2006 beginning of high inflation environment is a match, supported Taylor (2000) put forward the view, compared with Shi Jianhuai, et al (2008) received pass-through effect is still weak, indicating that its recommendations can be an effective appreciation of the RMB curb inflation point of view is questionable. The monetary policy reflects the growth of money supply to pass on the CPI's long-term elasticity of 2.254, much higher than the exchange rate transmission elasticity, which can show the use of an independent monetary policy to stabilize inflation and compared through the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate policy to curb inflation have better results.

Key words: Key words:Structural Change, Exchange Rate Pass-Through, ARDL-ECM, Bounds Test