关键词: 住房市场, 政府干预, 效果评价

Abstract: Firstly, this paper theoretically analyzes the objective and instruments of government intervention in housing prices based on the stock-flow model. Secondly, by jointly employing the multi-variable intervention analysis and panel data analysis, this paper carries out an empirical study to examine the combined impacts of several important policy measures on the housing price movements in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Chongqing. The results will show that: (1) Most nationwide intervention instruments have significant short-term or long-term effects on housing prices in major cities, especially the two rounds of the comprehensive control policy led by the State Council after 2005 helped curb fast rising housing prices with different patterns and magnitudes. (2) The effectiveness of this round of government intervention has gradually improved, but nationwide intervention instruments have different impacts on regional housing sub-markets. The negative responses of the second-tier cities’ housing markets were much stronger than those of the first-tier cities. (3) The land transaction regime changed initiated in 2004 might be one of the most important policies that boosted up the housing prices.

Key words: Housing Market, Government Intervention, Effectiveness Evaluation