统计研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (7): 65-72.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

多元极值的参数建模方法及其金融应用:最新进展述评

覃筱 任若恩   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-07-15 发布日期:2010-07-15

A Survey on Parametric Modeling for Multivariate Extremes and Financial Applications

Qin Xiao & Ren Ruoen   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-07-15 Published:2010-07-15

摘要:

由于现实中的极值事件往往倾向于同时或相继发生,因此多元极值研究正成为极值统计学的理论前沿和研究热点。本文对该领域中参数建模方法的最新进展做了系统性述评,包括经典多元极值理论、Ledford-Tawn-Ramos方法和Heffernan和Tawn条件法等,并指出了这些建模方法的优缺点以及未来可能的理论突破点。本文还全面分析了近年来多元极值分析方法在金融领域的国内外应用现状,并探讨其未来的应用前景,可能是在金融传染、组合问题和系统性风险管理等方面。

关键词: 多元极值, 参数模型, 极值统计学, 极值理论, 尾部相依性

Abstract: Due to the frequent co-occurrences of extremes, research on multivariate extremes has become the theoretical frontier and focus in extreme value statistics. This paper systematically surveys the recent developments on parametric modeling for multivariate extremes, including the classical multivariate extreme value theory, Ledford-Tawn-Ramos’ approach and Heffernan and Tawn’s conditional approach, and etc., and extensively analyzes the pros and cons of these models and possible issues of theoretical improvement. Besides, we also investigate their current applications in finance, and suggest that the potential areas of future applications might be in financial contagion, portfolios and systemic risk management, and etc.

Key words: Multivariate, extremes, Parametric, model, Extreme, value, statistics, Extreme, value, theory, Tail, dependence