统计研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 146-160.doi: 10.19343/ j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.02.011

• • 上一篇    

传统PSM-DID模型的改进与应用

谢申祥 范鹏飞 宛圆渊   

  • 出版日期:2021-02-25 发布日期:2021-02-25

Improvement and Application of Classical PSM-DID Model

Xie Shenxiang Fan Pengfei Wan Yuanyuan   

  • Online:2021-02-25 Published:2021-02-25

摘要: 在倾向得分匹配-双重差分模型(PSM-DID)的应用中,面临原本适用于截面数据的倾向得分匹配(PSM)运用到面板数据中的挑战,传统基于面板数据转化为截面数据再匹配的方案和基于面板数据逐期匹配的方案,容易产生“自匹配”现象或匹配对象在政策前后不一致的问题。为克服上述问题,本文对传统的逐期匹配方案进行了如下改进:一是对匹配变量进行区分,并由特殊类变量和倾向得分值(ps 值)共同控制匹配;二是匹配方式由原来ps值点对点匹配,改进为ps 值序列间的整体匹配。更进一步,在应用实例中显示,当对照组与处理组差异较大且存在特殊类变量时,利用改进后的PSM-DID模型可以更加有效地识别出政策产生的效应。

关键词: PSM-DID, 特殊类变量, ps值序列匹配

Abstract: In the application of PSM-DID model,there is always the problem of how to apply PSM to panel data, which is originally applicable to cross-section data. Two traditional solutions are directly transforming panel data to section data and phase by phase matching. These measures are prone to produce "self-matching" or the problem of unstable control subjects. This paper makes two improvements on the basis of phase by phase matching to overcome these problems: one is to distinguish the matching variables, and the matching is controlled by special class variables and propensity score value (ps value); the other is to improve the matching mode from the original point-to-point matching of the ps value to the whole matching between ps value sequences. In the case study, it is found that when there is a big difference between the control group and the treatment group and there are special class variables in control variables, the improved PSM-DID model can identify the policy effects more effectively.

Key words: PSM-DID, Special Class Variables, ps Value Sequences Matching