Abstract:Abroad, the event study method has been used extensively in financial and economic research. Based on the external results of event study methodology, this paper discusses the procedures and properties of event study, and compares the external and internal literature using event study methods in financial and economic research. Our results suggest that there exist many choices in event studies, which may influence the reliability of research results, and as regards the literature using event study methods in financial and economic research, some limitations remain in the internal literature, compared to the external literature.

 

2008 SNA further revised the calculation methods on output of central bank for its measurement and allocation. Compared to 1993 SNA, the new methods were more reasonable, but still omitted lots of details of how to implement it, including partition of various central bank activities in practice, impacts on national accounts of new recording methods on output of central bank and related flows, calculation methods of FISIM with implicit tax and subsidies, etc.. This paper sorted out the new calculation methods on output of central bank in 2008 SNA and explored its possible consequences, both theoretically and practically. In the last part of the paper, certain implementation issues of China were also discussed.

Enders and Lee (2012) propose a Fourier function augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test (FADF) under the smooth breaks. This paper considers the asymptotic behavior of the standard Dickey-Fuller unit root test when the real data generating process contains smooth breaks. We show that, in the OLS regression, the -ratio statistics for testing unit root has the same asymptotic distribution as that of Dickey and Fuller (1979). It means that the asymptotic validity of the DF test under the null is not affected by no allowance for a break if there is a break or by the allowance for a break if there is no break. The Monte Carlo simulations support our theory. Meanwhile, simulation not only indicates that FADF has good performance for time series with smooth breaks or abrupt breaks in small samples but shows that the incorrect treatment of Fourier terms can deteriorate the finite sample properties of DF test.

Duty consumption can be one way for the senior executives’ embezzling of the corporate residual assets, which poses a difficult issue for the enterprise nowadays. This article, taking the sample data from a-share markets in both Shanghai and Shenzhen and from the point of view of political networks among those senior executives, has made an analysis on the effect of the duty consumption in state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises towards the management of the enterprises. The research has found out that the political networks in the state-owned enterprises have enlarged the scale of duty consumption, however, on the other hand, the duty consumption has been notably suppressed by such network in non-state-owned enterprise. The marketization process can effectively lower down the control of the government over state-owned enterprises and reduce the appeal of the non-state-owned enterprises for the government enterprises relationship networks, so as to bring down the scale of duty consumption and to boost the enterprises’ profit. The article has also pointed out that on the premise of a imperfect legal system and weak protection of ownership in our country, it is of great significance to press down the scale of duty consumption and improve enterprises’ performance in solving the traditional agency issue, more importantly, to reduce the expensive transaction fees due to the lack of proper system and regulations. From a long term view, accelerating the process of marketization can effectively reduce the rent-seeking activities, bring down duty consumption and transaction costs, and further optimize the allocation of resources in the entire society.

This paper evaluates efficiency of hi-tech industries in 30 provinces of China from 2006 to 2008 using three-stage DEA model. The results show that: on the one hand, the efficiency of hi-tech industries in every province is affected by local economic level. As the regional analysis shows, the east region is best, the west region is second and the middle region is worst; on the other hand, the efficiency of hi-tech industries is influenced by environmental variables. After rejecting the influence of environmental variables and statistical factors, efficiency of hi-tech industries in every province changes a lot. Although pure technical efficiency increases, technical efficiencies of 30 provinces are low because of the low level of scale efficiency. At last, related suggestions are given in order to improve the efficiency of hi-tech industries.

In this paper，The Gini coefficient of the income distribution of residents was measured in China during 1978-2007. And its distribution was estimated by using parametric and nonparametric approaches. It was showed that the Gini coefficient was normal distribution approximately. Finally, a certain critical value of gini coefficient as the warning level was suggested on the basis of the asymptotic properties of large sample.

The heterogeneity of the characteristics of the listed real estate companies determines their different responses to the regulatory policies. This paper takes the release of the State Council's No.10 National Notice as the policy background and the listed real estate companies in Chinese stock market as the research sample. Through the use of event study methodology based on the Carhart four-factor model, we study the cumulative abnormal return of the listed real estate companies and do further research on the cross-sectional heterogeneity of the effects generated by the regulatory policy on the stock prices of the real estate companies in our sample. The empirical results show that the release of the State Council's No.10 National Notice created a huge impact on stock prices of the real estate sector, and the companies of different characteristics have significantly diversifying reactions to the regulatory policy. In particular, the real estate companies with a fast pace in the early expansion stage and those who concentrated mainly on real estate business are heavily influenced by the policy regulation. Further inference results from the randomized periods using bootstrap method show that the above cross-section heterogeneity of the regulatory effects is related to specific policy backgrounds.

Firstly, this paper theoretically analyzes the objective and instruments of government intervention in housing prices based on the stock-flow model. Secondly, by jointly employing the multi-variable intervention analysis and panel data analysis, this paper carries out an empirical study to examine the combined impacts of several important policy measures on the housing price movements in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Chongqing. The results will show that: (1) Most nationwide intervention instruments have significant short-term or long-term effects on housing prices in major cities, especially the two rounds of the comprehensive control policy led by the State Council after 2005 helped curb fast rising housing prices with different patterns and magnitudes. (2) The effectiveness of this round of government intervention has gradually improved, but nationwide intervention instruments have different impacts on regional housing sub-markets. The negative responses of the second-tier cities’ housing markets were much stronger than those of the first-tier cities. (3) The land transaction regime changed initiated in 2004 might be one of the most important policies that boosted up the housing prices.

The Environmental Kuznets Curve implies a homogeneous assumption which means that with the development of economy, similar environmental impacts would happened on various countries and regions. Based upon questioning the homogeneous assumption, this paper takes overall and packet tests on the 31 provinces of China, and the results show that：（1）Environmental pollution and economic growth has a variety of forms, which mainly depends on the selection of regions and pollution indexes, and the specific relations could be monotone decreasing, "U" shape, inverted "U" shape, "N" shape and inverted "N" shape；（2）Different groups’ current economic level will give different endogenous effect to different pollutant. Relatively, the difficulty of SO2 emission reduction mainly exists in the group of high level industry-high income, group of high level industry-low income and group of low level industry-low income; the difficulty of solids waste emission reduction mainly exists in the group of low level industry-low income; the difficulty of waste water emission reduction mainly exists in the group of low level industry-high income, and group of low level industry-low income. Therefore, the government should adjust measures to local conditions, increase the strength of environmental regulation and optimize the forms of environmental regulation, thus to realize the win-win situation between the protection of environment and economic growth..

With the arrival of the era of informationization and internet, the wave of “Big Data” brings us “gold mine” of information and brings official statistics challenges as well. In this paper, the authors make the elementary analysis and give the answer to the questions of how to recognize “Big Data” correctly and how to deal with the challenges brought by of “Big Data” by official statistics.

A measurement model is developed for assessing ICT (Information and Communication Technology) impact on e-commerce migration – from traditional channel to internet-based e-commerce at firm level, including related factors and hypotheses, grounded in the innovation diffusion theory. Function-based business processes implemented electronically in value chain are used as measures of e-commerce migration from a business process perspective. The model is verified and the hypotheses are tested for analyzing the determinants and their contribution with a dataset of 156 traditional “brick-and-mortar” firms from China. The results support the relationship between the ICT factors and e-commerce migration, and suggest five drivers and industry type impacting e-commerce while firm size and ownership are non-significant factors. The instrument can help assessing ICT impact more effectively, and better establishing of the favorable strategies and policies in order to facilitate e-commerce in firms.

Appropriate service window scheduling strategy is important for bank to retain its customers, which could significantly reduce the customers’ waiting time with less cost. Based on the collected data of one bank’s customers arriving time and service time, the customers’ arriving time and service time curve is imitated by using optimal square approximation method. According to the Kolmogrov-Smirmov inspection method, the parameter is proved to fit for the M/M/n queuing model analysis condition. Through the common customer and VIP customer M/M/n model analysis, comparison of the statistical analysis result, the service queuing window balance scheduling strategy is determined to be the appropriate strategy. The balance scheduling strategy would shorten queuing time without increasing extra hardware resource and thus improve the customer satisfaction.

This paper uses highly disaggregated trade data of China Agriculture Products exporting to the U.S. from 1989 to 2008. We employ survival analysis to study the duration of China Agriculture Products exporting to the U.S. Our findings indicate the duration of this trade is very short. The mean duration of HS10-digit Agriculture Products exporting to the U.S. is 3.9 years, the median is 2 years and the mode is 1. Robust test indicates that the result is no difference across product classification levels. On this basis, we propose policy recommendations and the lack of research.

It’s important for statistical design to enhance the ability of a large period design. On the base of three aspects: a comprehensive understanding of the large period design concepts and goals, strengthen the awareness of the large period design and promotion the establishment of a large period design system. This paper proposes some basic ideas of a large period design. Thereby, the study of this paper can establish a theoretical foundation for the reform of the statistical system and statistical methods, so as to the statistical system design.

Based on the data of urban household survey (UHS) in 2002 to 2009, this paper analyzes the effects of the participation rate and the contribution rate of social insurance on urban household consumption. We use instrumental variables method to solve the endogenous problem of the models and get the following results. Compared to uninsured families, the household of participating in social insurance increased 0.61% of household consumption; but the contribution rate of social security increased 1%; and the household consumption reduced 0.63%. For the type of family, the effect of the contribution rate of social insurance on consumption of the state-owned sector, high-income and young birth cohort families are higher than the non-state sector, low-income and elderly birth cohort families. Based on the type of social security, if the contribution rate of pension insurance increased 1%, consumption will decrease 2.58%; if the contribution rate of health insurance increased 1%, then consumption will increase 2.1%. Depending on the type of expenditure, the contribution rate of pension insurance has significantly negative effect on some larger expending categories, such as food, clothing, education, entertainment and transportation; however, it has significantly positive effect on some smaller expending categories, such as child training courses, tobacco, alcohol, and eating out.

Abstract: “Property Income” was put forward and drew great attention in the 17th National Congress of the CPC. The National Bureau of Statistics of China gave the definition and made classification and statistics of resident income by conducting “Urban Resident Survey”. However, about the concept of “Property Income”, there is a big conflict between China and SNA. Due to this, the classification and statistics of resident income are great different from developed countries like US and Canada. From the view of account settings and economic context of the SNA, this paper analyses the non-property income attribute of the housing rentals and proposed adjustment advices of the resident income classification.

Pension replacement rate measuring the pension level is defined as the ratio of pension income to working income. This indicator has been widely computed for the assessment of adequacy of pension systems and international comparisons. In some literature, the indicator of average replacement rate is adopted to measure the average level of replacement rate in China. These studies show that the pension replacement rate has been decreasing to below the international warning level or target level, and thus propose to improve the benefit accordingly. This paper examines the concept, scope and computing method of alternative pension replacement rates systematically. Based on stochastic simulation, the distribution of replacement rate for different types of people is described and the probability of achieving the target replacement rate is given. The misunderstanding of average replacement rate is clarified. By applying the method of factor decomposition, factors influencing average replacement rate are investigated and deviation of this indicator in measuring the average level of replacement rate is analyzed. Moreover, this paper indicates that median replacement rate is more appropriate in measuring the average level of replacement rate.

This paper constructs an interest rates augmented New Keynesian Phillips curve model and uses GMM methods to estimate and test the model with quarterly data during 1997 to 2008 in mainland China. Empirical results show that the interest rate is statistically significant and qualitatively important as one of inflation drivers and the effect is obviously more than many other foreign countries; current inflation dynamics is affected by inflation inertia and expectation together and the latter is playing a leading role; pricing behavior of firms reflects both forward-looking and backward-looking and the latter is in dominant position.

Financial development takes a very important role in China's technological progress and industrial upgrading. This paper first analyzes the data of all 28 provinces in China from 2000-2008, in use of the fixed effects panel data regression with AR(1) approach to estimate the TFP and the level of financial development in all regions, then uses the two-step system GMM to evaluate the effect of financial development to the technological progress and industrial upgrading. The conclusions indicate that after controlling the other relevant variables, financial development also plays a positive role in technological progress and industrial upgrading

In order to serve the revolutionary war and the economic construction, the government of Central Soviet Area made a large number of statistical reports fully reflecting the situations of war and building, took a variety of survey methods to ensure data true and reliable, and analyzed data and published statistical materials .

Abstract：Applying cluster analysis and Beta regression models, the paper analyzes the data published in 2009 auditing report of compulsory automobile liability insurance in China. We show that there are significant differences between loss ratios of 31 provinces, and these differences are mainly caused by income per capita, CPI, commuting expense per capita and auto numbers per capita. Loss ratios of nine classes of compulsory automobile liability insurance are also significantly different, and which indicates unfairness of current premium levels. The abnormal negative correlation between loss ratios and expense ratios of 31 provinces indicates existence of irregular expense allocation in compulsory automobile liability insurance. Companies’ expense ratios of operating compulsory automobile liability insurance are mainly influenced by the volume of underwriting premium of the company and are not related with where they operate and what classes of compulsory automobile liability insurance they underwrite.

The variance estimation is very important part in sample survey, and replicated sample method is a common method. Replicate weight, which is similar with replicated sample method, gets a lot of replicated weights to obtain the estimators by computer, it is also a robust, common and effective method. This paper expatiates that how to use this method in complex survey.

This paper is a comparative study of Enterprise Integrated Investigation(EII) and Extensible Business Reporting Language（XBRL），comparison shows EII and XBRL have quite a lot of similarities in specification record、data format、data gathering and sharing as well as some differences. Then, the paper focuses on the gaps of the range of application and the promotion time between the EII and XBRL. Finally suggestions are thrown out on the merging of EII and XBRL.

In this paper, the prepay and default risk of house mortgage loan are studied by duration data analysis. We estimated Cox proportional hazard model under competing risks, and calculated the Cox-Snell residual and Deviance residual used for the test of model fit, which indicate that the competing risk frailty models fit well for the empirical data. This empirical study can describe the inherent time effect of the duration of mortgage loan risk. Furthermore, the application of this empirical study in the mortgage-backed securities and credit risk management is discussed in this paper.

Based on the Annual Population Change Survey, through the relationships between survey indexes, characteristics of population changes and problems in the survey, this article analyzes the estimating method of the area total resident population in China, compare the advantages and disadvantages and application conditions of each method, then select the appropriate method according to migration features and population base. The future work will focus on how to strengthen the interface between the national data and area data.

This paper proposed a new method of dealing with missing data based on clustering and association rule. Firstly, we divided the original data set into several parts by clustering method, and then use the improved association rule to investigate useful rules between the variables on those child data sets, and use these rules to fill the missing data. We found that this method has a good result on handling massive data sets with missing data by empirical study.

orientated researches and academic progresses. Policy orientated researches include targets and decomposition, standard control, market indicators system, indicators of energy sustainable development as well as the indicators derived from SEEA-E. Academic progresses are classified into six aspects: theoretical research and foreign experience promoting, scope, impact, energy species, life cycle and application of indicators. In vies of the problems emerge in the research of indicators on energy saving and emissions reducing, we raised a brief analysis of its causes and countermeasures.

This article tests the semi-strong efficiency of China’s stock through examining the change of stock prices and stock volumes of the listed corporations that had been published or criticized. The method used in this article is event study. The result is that China’s stock market hasn’t come to the semi-strong efficiency.

This paper tests the non-linearity of Chinese money demand by applying smooth transition regression techniques. Using seasonally adjusted quarterly data from 1996(1) to 2008(4), it is found that money demand functions indeed exists non-linearity, which indicates the asymmetric effects of monetary policy. Meanwhile, there is monetary policy lag when price level and national income are viewed as policy control variables. In this paper, empirical results show that the price and productive lag are both 4 quarters.

Inflation is an important factor affecting economic growth. Previous studies are built on the basis of linear or threshold regression model. In this paper, panel smooth transition regression model is used to re-test the relationship between them. Through the test we find that the assumption of linearity of inflation on economic growth is significantly rejected, and the smooth transition model better characterizes the relationship between them. The study finds that the threshold value of the inflation is 14.9%. As this value decreased gradually, its effects on economic growth increase gradually; when the threshold value is higher than 14.9%, as inflation continues to increase, its effects decrease gradually, even negative, asymmetry exists evidently. The analysis of marginal effect shows that the coefficient of inflation on economic growth is obviously not the same for each province with obvious heterogeneity, the effect of inflation on economic growth in underdeveloped provinces is greater than that in developed provinces. The test results show that the contribution of investment to economic growth is the greatest, followed by the level of foreign trade; government consumption and the natural population growth rate have negative impacts on economic growth, which is more robust.

The survey work in the Central Soviet Area had distinct features and played an important role in information, consultation and supervision functions. It provides us many useful insights in the process of reform and modernization of statistics.

Based on the micro data from urban employed persons survey in Zhejiang province, this paper explores the wage differential between the public and non-public sector using the methods of Instrumental Quantile Regression Model(IVQR). The results assuming exogenous sector choice give a negative public sector wage premium. Correcting for endogenous sector choice, the results of IVQR show that wages in the public sector are 30.1%-10.7% higher than that in the non-public sector and the wage differential declines monotonically with movement down to the right of conditional wage distribution.

With the continuous improvement of the system of the socialist market economy in China, the period-to-period percent change data are being used gradually to monitor important macroeconomic indices. However, the quality of the ring data depends on the understanding and mastery of the seasonal adjustment methods. After briefly introducing the development of the seasonal adjustment methods and the software which realizes these methods, the present paper summarizes the development of researches and applications about seasonal adjustment methods in China. In the part of introducing the development of seasonal adjustment methods, it explains the features of the seasonal adjustment software PBC version of X-12-ARIMA and NBS-SA released by People’s Bank of China and by National Bureau of Statistics, respectively. In the part of introducing seasonal adjustment application, the paper elaborates the Chinese literatures about seasonal adjustment from two aspects of the Chinese spring festival effects and the structural time series models. Finally in the summary section, the paper presents some constructive suggestions.

By using daily data between 2005/7/21and 2009/8/13, we study the weight of currency which RMB pegging to, especial that of US dollar, to explore the dynamic changes of RMB. We find: (1) the average weight of USD is 88%, and CUSUM stability test reveals there exists structure changes;(2)in the rolling estimation, a continuous picture of the weight of USD is divided into 3 stages: increase slowly, decrease sharply and re-increase;(3) we introduce EMP to our model, but its effect is insignificant. Using the above results, we explain the dynamic changes of RMB/USD after the exchange regime reform.

The econometric models can be divided into classical models and non-classical models according to the evolution of contents. Non-classical econometric modeling methodology is not only the development and extension of classical econometric modeling methodology, but also be different from the former in the modeling concepts, modeling methods, models application and so on. In the paper, the evolution laws of the non-classical econometric modeling methodology was summarized and generalized， and a system summary and theoretical analysis on non-classical econometric modeling methodology was made from the data types, variables, object, parameter form and modeling ideology. The different characteristics of non-classical econometric modeling methodology was compared with the classical econometric modeling specifically.

Social statistics is a young and rapidly developing subject in China. It also has great potential. This paper reviews the development of social statistics in china and efforts of statistical departments and researchers on it. Secondly, this paper analyses the prosperity of social statistics currently and background, sources and performance of prosperity. Finally, the focuses of the social statistical work are pointed out, which will help to work of relevant departments.

The paper systematically summarizes the international standard on the CPI method of the Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice published by the International Labor Office in 2004, and compares the standard with the Chinese CPI method, then carries out some detailed comparisons on the differences of CPI compiling ways from the practical aspects between advanced USA and China, aiming at providing some reference for experts and scholars who interested in Chinese CPI establishment.

Firstly, we establish a Bayesian Vector Auto-regression (BVAR) model and analyze the impulse responses of inflation to macroeconomic factors and its intensity. In addition, we establish a Threshold model and analyze the threshold effects of inflation when different variables are used as threshold variables. Through the empirical researches, we find that the impulse responses of inflation to shocks from six factors are different. The temporary response to excess liquidity is the most strongest and those to stock price, output gap and oil price are moderate. Then the intensity responding to real exchange rate and house price are the weakest. The stock price, real exchange rate and oil price have obvious threshold characteristics, which can separately divide the inflation into high and low status. These findings help us understand and recognize the responding mechanism of inflation better. Thus we can take sound economic policies to deal with inflation.