统计研究 ›› 2006, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (7): 11-17.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

开放条件下对货币供应、产出与通货膨胀关系的再思考——基于东亚发展模式的分析

程凌 张金水   

  1. 清华大学
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2006-07-15 发布日期:2006-07-15

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2006-07-15 Published:2006-07-15

Abstract: Abstract:Friedman proposition indicates that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. At present, most of theoretical analyses on money supply, economic growths and inflations are based on the condition of a closed economy and most of the empirical studies are based on Chinese data, basically, Friedman proposition gets its supports among these empirical studies. In this paper, theoretical analysis is extended to the environment of an opening economy, the relationship among above variables are studied and get a conclusion which shows increase of money supply does not necessarily cause the increase of prices, on the contrary, it may lead to increase of real outputs. Based on this theoretical analysis, an econometric model employing muhinational panel data of eastern countries is established in this paper. Through some econometric methods to analyze, such as ADF test, Granger causality test and model specification test, the viewpoint brought forward in this paper is proved to be reasonable