统计研究 ›› 2007, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 41-46.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国经济增长路径中稳定状态推移的政策模拟 ——基于拉姆齐模型的实证研究

肖红叶 顾六宝   

  1. 天津财经大学统计学系
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-04-15 发布日期:2007-04-15

Policy Simulation of the shift transformation of the stable state in China’s economic growth route ——Empirical study based on the Ramsey’s model

XIAO Hong-ye ;GU Liu-bao   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-04-15 Published:2007-04-15

摘要: 本文基于拉姆齐模型的动态分析框架,借助于对其中若干重要参数的分析,对中国经济增长中的稳定状态及其推移问题进行了实证研究;并利用研究结论对中国经济增长的最优路径进行了模拟。初步结论为:①中国经济增长路径中存在稳定状态且随其参变量的变化而移动;②此稳定状态可以通过政策优化参数而向后推移;③可调控参数分别为消费跨期替代弹性、人均消费增长率、资本份额、技术进步速率、社会平均折旧率、人口自然增长率。

关键词: 拉姆齐模型, 稳定状态, 最优增长路径

Abstract: The paper makes an empirical study of the stable state and the shift transformation in China’s economic growth, by means of dynamic analytical framework of Ramsey’s model and the analysis of its important parameters. Based upon this research, the paper further simulates the optimum route in China’s economic growth and researches such initial conclusions as follows: ① China’s economic growth route has the stable state which moves with the variable parameter’s changes; ②This stable state can be pushed backward through optimization of the parameters by policy; ③The regulatable parameters are as follows “Intertemporal Substitution Elasticity of Consumption”,“ consumption growth rate per person”,“capital share”, “technological progress rate” , “social average depreciation rate” , “natural growth rate of population” .


 

Key words: Ramsey’s model, Stable state, Optimum growth route