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Abstract: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, how to mitigate the adverse impact of the epidemic and push international trade into the fast lane of recovery has become a major issue that needs to be addressed by the international community. This article empirically investigates the impact and mechanism of the COVID- 19 on global trade based on monthly panel data at the cross-country level and then assesses its trade welfare effects in the general equilibrium condition. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (1)The COVID-19 has a significant inhibitory effect on import and export trade. Combined with the bilateral level of import and export parties,the estimated ad-valorem tax equivalents of the COVID-19 range from 0. 175% ~ 5. 913% and 0. 186% ~ 6. 275% for import and export, respectively. (2)The mechanism test shows that the COVID-19 has a restraining effect on global trade mainly through channels such as intensifying supply and demand shocks, triggering trade barriers, and spawning uncertain risks. (3)The counterfactual analysis based on the GETI framework shows that the elimination of the COVID-19 could bring about 0. 3% ~ 3. 48% improvement in trade welfare transnationally, in which middle-income economies would have slightly greater trade gains than high-income economies. This paper helps to further enrich the research connotation of epidemiology and international economics, and also has important enlightenment for the global economy and health governance in the post-pandemic era.

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