统计研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (10): 62-75.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.10.006

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数字普惠金融促进包容性增长的机理及有效性检验

傅利福 厉佳妮 方霞 韦宏耀   

  • 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-10-25

The Mechanism and Validation of Digital Inclusive Finance Promoting Inclusive Growth

Fu Lifu Li Jiani Fang Xia Wei Hongyao   

  • Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-10-25

摘要: 发展数字普惠金融是实现包容性增长的重要战略举措。本文基于广义Bonferroni曲线测度社会包容度指数的基础上,利用一元并行多重中介模型、FY分解方法和面板平滑转换模型,探究数字普惠金融对包容性增长的影响机理并对其有效性进行评估。研究发现:数字普惠金融对包容性增长存在明显的边际促进作用,这种促进作用主要通过财富渠道和创新渠道显现,金融渠道传导作用有限;数字普惠金融对包容性增长的贡献度总体上升,但表现出明显的区域异质性,西部地区贡献率增长最快。究其原因,地区人均GDP、城镇化率和金融市场化程度的区域差异,使得数字普惠金融的服务效能存在明显的区制转换效应。本文可为数字普惠金融政策提供量化分析,也为理解数字普惠金融的服务效能提供理论依据。

关键词: 数字普惠金融, 包容性增长, Bonferroni曲线, PSTR模型

Abstract: Developing digital inclusive finance is an important strategic initiative to achieve inclusive growth. Based on the generalized Bonferroni curve to calculate the social inclusion index, a one-dimensional parallel multiple intermediary model, FY decomposition method and panel smoothing transformation model are used to explore the mechanism of the impact of digital inclusive finance on inclusive growth and to evaluate its effectiveness. The study finds that there is an obvious marginal contribution of digital inclusive finance to inclusive growth, which occurs mainly through the wealth channel and innovation channel, with limited financial channel transmission. The contribution of digital inclusive finance to inclusive growth increases in general, but shows obvious regional heterogeneity, with the fastest growth in the western region. Due to regional differences in per capita GDP, urbanization rate and financial marketization degree, the service capacity of digital inclusive finance have obvious regional transformation effects. The paper provides a quantitative analysis of digital inclusive finance policies and a theoretical basis for understanding the service capacity of digital inclusive finance.

Key words: Digital Inclusive Finance, Inclusive Growth, Bonferroni Curve, PSTR Model