关键词: 政策受益比例, 新农保政策, 政策异质性, 劳动供给

Abstract: China is aging at an unprecedented rate. To evaluate the impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on the labor supply of middle-aged and old people in rural areas of China, it is important to focus on the heterogeneity of the NRPS. Based on the instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) model, this paper proposes a parameter denoting the proportion of gainers (POG), which can be used to estimate the percentages of different groups positively impacted by the policy and reflect the breadth of the policy impact. Based on the above method, it is found that the NRPS restrains the labor supply of low labor supply groups, but increases labor supply of high labor supply groups; the NRPS has a general effect of promoting the household income and consumption of rural residents, and by improving the labor supply of high labor supply groups, it significantly improves their household income and consumption. Therefore, we should focus on improving the coverage of the NRPS so that it can better benefit rural residents. To deal with the problem of insufficient labor supply caused by the aging population, we advise that the government should avoid “ one size fits all”, and instead formulate different policies targeting individual groups of rural residents

Key words: Proportion of Gainers, NRPS in China, Heterogeneity of a Policy, Labor Supply