统计研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 44-56.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.06.004

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“一带一路”倡议能否降低 城市环境污染?———来自准自然实验的证据

余东升 李小平 李慧   

  • 出版日期:2021-06-25 发布日期:2021-06-25

Can the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Pollution in Cities? —Evidence from Quasi-natural Experiments

Yu Dongsheng Li Xiaoping Li Hui   

  • Online:2021-06-25 Published:2021-06-25

摘要: 本文立足国内和国际“双重视角”,利用DID和PSM-DID方法实证检验了“一带一路”倡议的环境污染效应及其作用机制,并采用古代“丝绸之路”途径城市作为工具变量缓解内生性问题。研究发现,“一带一路”倡议主要通过技术创新水平和资源配置效率的提升来改善国内沿线城市的环境污染,同时对国外沿线国家或地区也不存在所谓的“污染转嫁”。该结论在进行一系列安慰剂、变换PSM匹配及内生性处理之后依然稳健。本文结论正面回应了“一带一路”倡议中所谓的“污染转移威胁论”,同时也对绿色“一带一路”建设及人类命运共同体的推进具有启示性意义。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, PSM-DID, 环境污染, 污染转嫁

Abstract: Based on the domestic and international perspectives, this paper empirically tests the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on environmental pollution and its mechanism with DID and PSM-DID methods, and uses the cities along the ancient “Silk Road” as instrumental variables to alleviate endogenous problems. It is found that the Belt and Road Initiative reduces the environmental pollution of cities along the Belt and Road in China by improving the level of technological innovation and the efficiency of resource allocation, and there is no so-called “pollution transfer” to foreign countries on the route. This conclusion is still robust after a series of placebo, PSM matching changes, and endogenous treatment. The conclusion of this paper is an effective counterattack on the so-called “pollution transfer threat” in the Belt and Road Initiative, and is enlightening for the green Belt and Road development and the promotion of the community of shared future for mankind.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, PSM-DID, Environmental Pollution, Pollution Transfer