统计研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (10): 115-128.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.10.010

• • 上一篇    

城镇化进程中人口流动的主观福利效应考察

祝瑜晗 吕光明   

  • 出版日期:2020-10-25 发布日期:2020-10-21

Research on the Subjective Welfare Effect of Population Mobility in the Process of Urbanization

Zhu Yuhan Lv Guangming   

  • Online:2020-10-25 Published:2020-10-21

摘要: 《2019 年新型城镇化建设重点任务》提出“加快实施以促进人的城镇化为核心、提高质量为导向的新型城镇化战略”。人口流动已然成为城镇化进程中的一个典型社会现象,由此衍生的流动人口与本地居民的福利问题引起广泛关注。本文基于党的十九大提出的“获得感、幸福感、安全感”设计主观福利测度指标,采用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2015 年调查数据和相匹配的省级数据,通过倾向得分匹配、工具变量回归等方法考察城镇化进程中人口流动所带来的对流动个体自身和城镇本地居民的主观福利影响。研究表明:①农村人口流入城市,个体收入获得感显著提升,但其幸福感与流动之前并无明显变化,且增加了一定程度的不安全感,存在“福利博弈”;②城镇本地居民因流动人口的涌入促进了劳动职业分工,收入获得感较以前增强,但社交信任安全感稍有下降;流动规模与城镇本地居民的幸福感呈现正U 型状态,其影响由负转正的拐点为40.50%左右。结果表明,随着新型城镇化战略的不断推进和城市现代化治理能力的逐渐提升,城镇本地居民与流动人口平衡和谐共存局面也会最终达成。

关键词: 流动人口, 城镇本地居民, 获得感, 幸福感, 安全感

Abstract: The Key Tasks for New-type Urbanization in 2019 proposes “accelerating the implementation of the new-type urbanization strategy with the core of promoting urbanization of humans and the focus on improving quality”. Population mobility has become a common social phenomenon in the process of urbanization. The well-being of the migrant population and local residents has drawn wide attention. This paper designs the index of subjective well-being based on the “gain, happiness and security” proposed in the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. It uses CGSS 2015 data and matching provincial data to examine the impact of mobility on the subjective well-being of migrants and local residents, through matching propensity scores and instrumental variable regressions. The research shows that: (1) the rural migrants to urban areas are more at the expense security in exchange for the improvement of material gain, with no obvious change in happiness;(2) local residents’ sense of income gain is improved because the influx of migrants promoted the division of labor. However, at the same time, the sense of social trust and security decreased. The U-shaped state of migration scale and happiness indicates that the negative impact of the size of the migrant population on the happiness of local residents turns positive at around 40. 50%. With the continuous advancement of the new-type urbanization strategy and the gradual improvement of capacity in urban modern governance, a new balanced and harmonious coexistence in urban areas will be eventually achieved.

Key words: Migrant Population, Urban Local Residents, Gain, Happiness, Security