统计研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 32-45.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.04.003

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持股周期与股票盈利:来自中国A股市场的证据

路晓蒙 张勇 潘黎   

  • 出版日期:2020-04-25 发布日期:2020-04-15

Shareholding Period and Stock Profit: Evidence from China’s A-Share Stock Market

Lu Xiaomeng Zhang Yong Pan Li   

  • Online:2020-04-25 Published:2020-04-15

摘要: 价值投资是格雷厄姆经典投资理论的基本特征之一,坚持价值投资是投资者在股市中盈利的前提,但现实中我国投资者亏多赢少,可能的原因是投机心理导致的非理性行为。我国个人投资者持股周期普遍较短这一重要特征为该问题的研究提供了检验。本文基于我国股票市场个人投资者的微观调查数据,研究了个人投资者的持股周期对其股票盈利的影响,研究结果表明:与其他投资者相比,平均持股周期短的投资者在股市中更难盈利。可能的影响机制是持股周期短的投资者投资组合的多元化程度不足,导致盈利的可能性较低。异质性分析表明,前述作用机制在投资经验欠缺、可投资资产不足、跟风操作的投资者群体中表现得更为明显。本文的研究结论为个人投资者坚持长期投资和价值投资理念提供了经验证据。

关键词: 持股周期, 非理性行为, 价值投资

Abstract: Value investment is one of the basic characteristics of Graham’s classic investment theory. Adhering to value investment is the prerequisite for investors to make profits in the stock market. But in reality, the majority of individual investors in China are losing money. The possible reason is irrational behavior caused by speculative psychology. The important feature of the short period of individual investor shareholding in China provides a test channel for the study of this issue. Based on the micro-survey data of individual investors in China’s A-Share stock market, this paper studies the impact of individual investor shareholding period on their stock profitability. The results show that compared with other investors, investors with a short average holding period find it more difficult to make profits. The possible impact mechanism is that investors with a short shareholding period have insufficient diversification of their portfolios, resulting in a low probability of profitability. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the aforementioned mechanism is more obvious among investors who lack investment experience, have insufficient investable assets and blindly follow others. The conclusion of this study provides empirical evidence for individual investors to adhere to the long-term and value investment.

Key words: Shareholding Period, Irrational Behavior, Value Investment