统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (10): 17-29.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.10.002

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精准扶贫政策效果评估——收入、消费、生活改善和外出务工

张全红 周强   

  • 出版日期:2019-10-25 发布日期:2019-10-25

Policy Evaluation of China’s Targeted Poverty Alleviation—Income, Expenditure,Life Improvement and Migrant Work

Zhang Quanhong & Zhou Qiang   

  • Online:2019-10-25 Published:2019-10-25

摘要: 2014年以来我国开始大规模实施精准扶贫战略,科学估计该政策对我国贫困人口的影响至关重要。本文采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年和2016年两期数据,以贫困线为断点,研究了精准扶贫政策对农村贫困人口在家庭纯收入、转移支付收入、家庭人均消费、生活改善和外出务工等方面的影响。研究结果显示,精准扶贫政策显著提高了贫困户家庭的纯收入和转移支付收入水平,降低了人均消费支出和外出务工比例。进一步的研究显示,健康状况更好的贫困人口受到的政策影响更大,表明精准扶贫的政策影响具有异质性。这也提醒政策制定者在制定精准扶贫政策时要对因病致贫家庭予以特别关注。

关键词: 精准扶贫, 贫困线, 断点回归

Abstract: China has begun to implement targeted poverty alleviation strategy on a large scale since 2014, so it is very important to accurately estimate the impact of the policy on the poor in China. Using the data of China Family Follow-up Survey (CFPS) in 2014 and 2016, this paper evaluates the policy effects of China’s targeted poverty alleviation on the net income, transferred payment income, household per capita expenditure, life improvement and migrant workers of the rural poor, with the poverty line as the discontinuity. Empirical results show that the targeted poverty alleviation policy significantly increases the total income and transferred payment income of the poor families, and reduces the per capita consumption expenditure and the proportion of migrant workers. Further studies show that the policy effects are larger and more significant for people with better health status, suggesting the heterogeneity of the policy effects. These findings remind policymakers to pay special attention to poor families caused by illness when formulating poverty alleviation policies.

Key words: Targeted Poverty Alleviation, Poverty Line, Regression Discontinuity