关键词: 央行沟通, 词典分析, 监督学习

Abstract: Based on the verbal communication of the Central Bank Governor of China from January 2003 to August 2018, this paper generates a special dictionary for Central Bank Governor communication, and then constructs the monetary policy index and economic outlook index using the phrase weighting method. The monetary policy index can better fit the changes in the actual benchmark interest rate and deposit reserve ratio, and the economic outlook index can be used as an annulus for economic fundamentals. Furthermore, based on the supervised learning method, tendentious key words and their probability distribution are obtained by training the subsample dictionary, and the new communication text is automatically classified by the texting classifier, finally the new communication event is indexed. The supervised learning of the subsamples has similar results with the full sample information, indicating that the Central Bank’s verbal communication measure is replicable and extensible.

Key words: Central Bank Communication, Dictionary Analysis, Supervised Learning