统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (7): 91-103.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.07.008

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土地融资、城市化失衡与地方债务风险

冀云阳等   

  • 出版日期:2019-07-25 发布日期:2019-07-29

Land Financing, Unbalanced Urbanization and the Risk of Local Government Debt

Ji Yunyang et al.   

  • Online:2019-07-25 Published:2019-07-29

摘要: 本文研究了土地融资对我国城市化失衡的影响效果、地区异质性表现以及背后隐藏的债务风险。利用2007-2015年间地级市数据的实证结果表明:地方政府的土地融资活动显著促进了“土地城市化快于人口城市化”这一失衡现象的形成,并且此影响在人口流出地和中西部地区的城市表现得更显著。进一步分析发现:“负债型”城市化融资与“供给型”城市建设相结合的发展模式可能引致较大的地方政府债务风险,主要体现为土地融资会加重发展失衡城市的债务负担,而投资回报和效率较低是造成这一结果的重要机制。以上结论意味着不考虑需求因素而盲目依靠债务性投资驱动城市化发展的方式是不可持续的,应探索建立推动城市化良性发展的融资体系,并在土地融资与城市公共服务供给之间建立稳定的投入联系。

关键词: 土地融资, 城市化失衡, 债务风险, 投资效率

Abstract: In recent years, it has become a common practice for local governments to inject land assets into the financing platform companies and use them as collateral or credit guarantees to obtain bank loans and issue urban investment bonds, and this "land financing" mode greatly enhances the financing effect of land transfer. This paper studies the impact of "land financing" on the imbalance of China’s urbanization, regional heterogeneous performance and the hidden debt risk. The empirical results of prefecture-level city data from 2007 to 2015 show that the land financing activities of local governments have significantly promoted the formation of the imbalance phenomenon that the urbanization of land is faster than the urbanization of population, and their impact is more significant in the cities of emigrant areas and the central and western regions of China. Further analysis shows that the development mode of "debt-type" urbanization financing combined with "supply-type" urban construction may lead to greater risk of local government debt, mainly in that land financing will increase the debt burden of cities in unbalanced development, and low investment returns and efficiency are an important mechanism for this result. The above conclusions mean that it is not sustainable to blindly rely on the investment from government debt to drive the development of urbanization without considering the factors of demand. We should explore the establishment of a financing system to promote the benign development of urbanization and establish a stable investment relationship between land financing and urban public service supply.

Key words: Land Financing, Unbalanced Urbanization, Risk of Debt, Investment Efficiency