关键词: 货币政策, 非对称性偏好, 时变参数模型

Abstract: The asymmetric policy of commodity price stability and economic growth is a general strategy for the central bank to regulate the macroeconomy. Based on the asymmetric welfare loss function, this paper firstly backsteps to estimate the model of timevarying asymmetric preferences regulation for the central bank. The estimated results show that the central bank presents a policy orientation of targeting inflation and inflation fluctuation. Furthermore, the central bank also presents an asymmetric preference of inflation aversion and economic contraction avoidance, which means the central bank has a strong motivation to maintain inflation below the targeted inflation and economic growth rate higher than the goals of economic growth. In particular, the asymmetric preference of inflation aversion and economic contraction avoidance shows a strong negative correlation. In addition, the asymmetric preference of inflation aversion becomes stronger, while the asymmetric preference of economic contraction avoidance declines in recent years, indicating that China’s monetary policy has a strong preference for controlling inflation, however the asymmetric orientation policy in maintaining economic growth rate higher than the targeted rate has weakened.

Key words: Monetary Policy, Asymmetric Preferences, Time-varying Parameter Model