统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 81-93.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.06.007

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基本养老保险基金的调剂效果研究

张 勇   

  • 出版日期:2019-06-25 发布日期:2019-06-13

The Analysis on the Adjustment Effect of Basic Pension Fund

Zhang Yong   

  • Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-06-13

摘要: 自2018年7月1日起,我国开始实施《企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度》,对全国各省份的养老基金进行中央调剂,以缓解省际间养老保险基金的不平衡,其调剂效果也将直接影响到后续政策的制定。本文首先以养老基金拨付额与上解额之比构建了衡量调剂程度的指标——调剂指数,等于抚养比指数与工资指数之比;然后基于2009-2016年的省际面板数据展开实证分析,主要结论如下:①当前养老基金结余主要集中在广东、北京、上海等8个省份,而且这种高度集中的趋势还在逐年加强,有必要进行中央调剂;②抚养比越高、工资水平越低的省份,获得的调剂数额就越多,全国大约有20%的上解资金被用于省际间的调剂,被调入到收不抵支省份的资金比例在逐年上升;③抚养比指数和工资指数对调剂指数的影响程度存在很大差异,其中抚养比指数的影响程度超过了80%,而工资指数还不到20%,调整在职应参保人数的计算方式,主要是通过影响抚养比指数来影响调剂指数的。

关键词: 基本养老保险基金, 中央调剂, 调剂指数, 抚养比指数, 工资指数

Abstract: “Concentration Adjustment System” is expected to alleviate the gap between revenue and expenditure among provincial pensions. The adjustment effect of this transitional strategy will affect the future policies. Therefore, we construct an evaluation index——Adjustment Index (AI), which equal the ratio of Dependency Ratio Index (DI) to the Wage Index (WI). We make positive analysis based on the data from 2009 to 2016, and draw following conclusions: (1) The balances of pension funds have been highly concentrated upon 8 provinces including Guangdong, Beijing and Shanghai, and the concentration trend is increasing year by year; (2) About 20% of the turnedin funds are used for interprovincial transfers, and the proportion of funds transferred to provinces with insufficiency is increasing; (3) DI and WI highly affect the AI, but the degree is different, the ration of DI’s explanatory power is more than 80%, while the WI is less than 20%, and the method of calculating accrued and insured workers will affects AI by influencing DI.

Key words: Basic Pension System Fund, Concentration Adjustment, Adjustment Index, Dependency Ratio Index, Wage Index