统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 69-84.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.05.006

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中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业耦合性的四维分析

潘雨晨 张宏   

  • 出版日期:2019-05-25 发布日期:2019-05-25

A Four-dimensional Analysis of Manufacturing Coupling between China and the “Belt and Road Initiative” Countries

Pan Yuchen & Zhang Hong   

  • Online:2019-05-25 Published:2019-05-25

摘要: 本文创新性地构建“产业耦合性评价指标体系”,并基于UIBE GVC数据库中的ADBMRIO表从制造业的竞争性、互补性、依存性和融合性四个维度对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间制造业的耦合情况进行分析。同时,基于增加值贸易分解法对相关指数进行修正,使其可以准确反映增加值贸易视角下双边贸易关系的真实情况。随后从总值贸易和增加值贸易两个视角出发,进一步对中国与33个“一带一路”沿线国家14个制造业产业自2010-2017年间的耦合性进行对比分析。结果显示:从整体来看,在总值贸易视角下中国与沿线国家制造业可以保持良好的耦合性,但在增加值贸易视角下双边耦合水平出现恶化;从细分区域来看,无论在总值贸易还是增加值贸易下,东南亚和东亚地区都与中国在制造业领域内具有良好的耦合性,而中东欧地区与中国制造业的耦合性表现则最不理想,中亚和南亚地区均表现一般;从细分行业来看,在精炼石油、木制品、纸制品、皮制品等行业中,双边具有相对较好的耦合性,各国在不同行业中的表现也各不相同。最后,针对如何提升中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业耦合性的问题,本文从竞争、互补、依存和融合四个方面提出不断推进中国与沿线国家进一步合作、提升双边制造业耦合水平的建议。

关键词: 一带一路, 制造业, 耦合性, 四维分析

Abstract: This paper innovatively constructs the "Industry Coupling Assessment Index System" and does a four-dimensional analysis on coupling manufacturing industries between China and the “Belt and Road Initiative” countries, i.e., competitiveness, complementarity, dependence and integration of the manufacturing industries based on the ADBMRIO tables in UIBE GVC Database. At the same time, the relevant indexes are revised based on the value-added trade decomposition method, so that they can accurately reflect the reality of bilateral trade relations in the value-added trade. Then in total value and value added trade, a further study is conducted on coupling 14 manufacturing sub-industries in the years of 2010 to 2017 between China and 33 " Belt and Road Initiative" countries. It is found that, in total trade value, China's manufacturing industry can keep good overall coupling with the “Belt and Road Initiative” countries, but it deteriorates in bilateral value-added trade. In manufacturing sub-industries, whatever it is in total value or value-added trade, the manufacturing in Southeast Asia and East Asia has a good coupling with China’s, while Central and Eastern Europe is most undesirable in manufacturing coupling with China. Central Asia and South Asia performs in manufacturing coupling with China just so so. In sub-industries, there is a relatively good bilateral coupling between China and the “Belt and Road Initiative” countries in oil refining, wood, paper and leather products, etc. Countries perform differently in various sub-industries. Finally, as to how to enhance the manufacturing coupling between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries, this paper puts forward proposals from four aspects, competitiveness, complementarity, dependence and integration, i.e., to continuously promote further gung ho and up-grade the bilateral manufacturing coupling between China and the “Belt and Road Initiative” countries.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, Manufacturing Industry, Coupling, Four-dimensional analysis