统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 32-41.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.03.003

• • 上一篇    下一篇

地方政府性债务影响经济增长路径的区域异质性分析

韩健 程宇丹   

  • 出版日期:2019-03-25 发布日期:2019-03-27

A Study on Regional heterogeneity in the Impacts of Local Governmental Debts on Economic Growth Paths

Han Jian & Cheng Yudan   

  • Online:2019-03-25 Published:2019-03-27

摘要: 地方政府性债务影响经济增长的路径具有显著的区域异质性,这种异质性研究有利于加强地方政府性债务管理的有效性。公共投资、私人投资与公共支出是地方政府性债务影响经济增长的三条主要路径。文章在提出债务规模对三条路径影响都是非线性,且作用可能存在异质性假设的基础上,选取2010年到2016年,30个省(含自治区、直辖市)的相关数据,对全国、东、中、西部地区,影响经济增长的三条路径进行实证研究。东部地区的地方政府性债务规模增加,对公共投资无显著的影响,对私人投资有倒U型影响(拐点约为19%),对公共支出有显著的负面影响。中部地区的政府性债务规模增加对公共投资、私人投资的影响都是倒U型的(拐点分别约为30%和28%),对公共支出有显著的负面影响。西部地区的政府性债务规模增加对公共投资、私人投资和公共支出都存在倒U型影响(拐点均在70%以上)。

Abstract: There is significant regional heterogeneity in the impacts of local governmental debts (LGDs) on economic growth paths. A study on this heterogeneity is helpful for enhancing the effectiveness of LGDs governance. The public investment, private investment and public spending are the three main paths for LDGs militating on the economic growth. Based on the assumption that the debt impacts on these three paths are non-linear and possibly heterogeneous, this paper selects relevant data from 30 provinces in the years of 2010 to 2016, and does an empirical study on three paths affecting the economic growth in the nation, as well as in the eastern, middle and western parts of the country. It is found that the increase of LGDs in the eastern region has no significant impact on public investment, but an inverted U-shaped militation against private investment (the turning point is at about 19%) and a significant negative role on public spending. In the central region, the expansion of LGDs exerts an inverted U-shaped impact on both public investment and private investment (the respective turning points are at about 30% and 28%), and has a significant negative impact on public spending. The augmentation of LGDs has an inverted U-shaped impact on all public investment, private investment and public spending (all the turning points are at over 70%).

Key words: Local Governmental Debt, Economic Growth Path, Regional Heterogeneity