关键词: 人口特征, 人口—信贷—房价模型, 面板平滑转换模型

Abstract: This paper builds up a panel smoothing transition model based on the study of interactive mechanism among the demographic characteristics, financial market and real estate market and the 2002-2015 annual data from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in mainland China. Furthermore, taking the population density as a heterogeneous variable, a econometric model is constructed to study the non-linear factors affecting the real estate market, and the impacts of the Chinese provincial demographic characteristics on the housing price volatility. The results show that as the population density increases, the impact of per capita GDP on housing prices exposes an escalating effect in a non-linear way. In a sparsely populated city, a real estate price increase looks more like money-driven than that in a densely populated city. In a sparsely populated area, the more the aged and middle aged people, the more the housing price is inclined to edge down, reflecting the factual tendency of real estate prices driven by the young generation, but being an exception for a few most populated metropolitan cities.

Key words: Demographic Characteristics, Population-Credit-Property Price Model, Panel Smoothing Transition Model