关键词: 流动人口, 教育水平, 生育间隔, Cox回归

Abstract: This paper examines the data of migrant population dynamic monitoring survey in China 2016. And we use semi-parametric Cox regression to analyze the birth interval of the migrant population. The study results show that, firstly, not only the population turnover will delay the childbearing time, but also the education level will have a significant effect on the birth interval of the first and second child. Secondly, the older when the women married, the more likely it is to choose to give birth as soon as possible after married, and the impact of different marriage is obvious. At the same time, Participation in medical insurance has a significant shortening effect on the interval of the first child, and participation in maternity insurance has a significant delay effect on the birth interval. That has more economically powerful or holds important positions in their jobs, the more likely to extend the interval of birth. But with the extension of the interval between first childbirth, the interval of the second child will be shortened. In addition, the gender of the first child will have a significant influence on the birth interval of the second child. That is, if the first child is a girl, the birth time between first and second child will be shortened. According to the analysis of the policy effect, the birth policy cannot promote the birth of the first child, but it will obviously shorten the time of the second child.

Key words: Migrant Population, Level of Education, Birth Interval, Cox Regression