统计研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (2): 22-24.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

CPI月度环比指数季节调整及CPI折年率方法研究

董雅秀 沈赟 董莉娟   

  1. 国家统计局城市司CPI处
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-02-15 发布日期:2008-02-15

Research on the Seasonal Adjustment on the Chain Index of CPI and Annual Rate of CPI

Dong Yaxiu Shen Yun Dong Lijuan   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-02-15 Published:2008-02-15

摘要: 内容提要:CPI中长期变动趋势的预测一直是困扰经济学界的一个问题。本文研究了CPI月度环比指数的季节调整,并建立了CPI中长期预测的模型,并利用该模型对我国今年CPI上涨趋势进行了预测。

关键词: 关键词:CPI, 季节调整, 年率

Abstract:

Abstract: The forecast of the CPI’s trend in long term is always a problem for the economists. This paper does some research on the seasonal adjustment of changes from preceding month of CPI, and develops a model to forecast the annual rate of CPI. This paper also estimates the seasonally adjusted annual rate of CPI of China in 2007.

 

Key words: Key words: CPI, Seasonal adjustment, Annual rate