统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 31-42.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.06.004

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中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口持续期及影响因素研究

马佳羽 韩兆洲   

  • 出版日期:2018-06-25 发布日期:2018-06-22

A Study on Duration of China’s Export Trade to the Countries along the Belt and Road and Its Affecting Factors

Ma Jiayu & Han Zhaozhou   

  • Online:2018-06-25 Published:2018-06-22

摘要: “一带一路”倡议提出后,中国对沿线国家的出口贸易总量已经有所突破。与此同时产品出口是否也变得更加稳定?出口贸易的稳定性决定贸易联系的长期发展,稳定的贸易联系有利于中国企业的稳定发展。本文利用高度细分且重复观测的出口纵向生存数据,利用Cox随机效应混合模型进行两种时期的对比研究,并在模型中考虑交互作用。研究发现,“一带一路”倡议提出后,总体上,向沿线各国出口贸易更加稳定,各地区差距明显缩小,高技术产品出口稳定性显著提升,技术型产品与非技术型产品拉开了差距,出口产品结构有所优化。同时,倡议的提出对于GDP或人均GDP较低国家的出口稳定性推动最明显,尤其体现在技术型产品上。“一带一路”倡议提出后,出口贸易几乎不受汇率波动影响,倡议的提出在一定程度上削弱了远距离对出口的不利影响,且较大的初始贸易额所带来的优势对高技术产品出口稳定性的促进作用最明显。双边贸易联系的紧密性体现得更明显,而且双边贸易联系越紧密越有利于技术型产品出口。

关键词: 出口贸易, 纵向生存数据, Cox随机效应混合模型, 交互作用

Abstract: Since the “Belt and Road” (B&R) was initiated, China has made some breakthroughs in the export volume with the countries along the B&R, but do the product exports become more stable at the same time? The stability of export trade determines the long-term development of trade relations, and the stable trade relations are also in favor of the stable development of Chinese enterprises. This paper uses the longitudinal export survival data which is based on repeated observations and segmentation by products, and applies the Cox mixed models with random effects to the comparative study for two different periods, taking the interactive effects into account. It is found that, after the B&R was launched, the export trade to the countries along “B&R” has become more stable, and the gap among various regions considerably narrowed, the stability of high-tech products’ export significantly enhanced, the technical and non-technical products differed more in export, and the structure of export products got optimized. At the same time, the B&R brings obvious export stability to the countries whose GDP or per capita GDP is low, especially on technical products, the export trade hardly affected by the fluctuations of the exchange rates, the negative impact of long distance weakened on trade, and the advantages of the large initial trade volume to the stability is most significant on high-tech exports. The closer the bilateral trade relations are, the more favorable the export of technical products is.

Key words: Export Trade, Longitudinal Survival Data, Cox Mixed Model with Random Effects, Interactive Effect